Long-term scarring effect of neither working nor studying

an article by Fredrik W. Andersson and Susanne Gullberg Brännstrom (Statistics Sweden, Örebro, Sweden) and Roger Mörtvik (Umeå University, Sweden) published in International Journal of Manpower Volume 39 Issue 2 (May 2018)

Abstract

Purpose
It is increasingly important to study labour market outcomes for people who are not in employment, education, or training (NEET). Where most studies focus solely on young people, the purpose of this paper is to include both younger and older NEETs to find out if there is any long-term scarring effect, and if the effect is different between these two groups.

Design/methodology/approach
This study uses a twin-based estimation method for the first time to measure the long-term effect of economic inactivity on income. The analysis is based on biological twins, in order to control for individuals’ unobservable heterogeneity. It is assumed that twins are similar to each other and the only unobservable heterogeneity is at the family level. Register-based data from Statistics Sweden is used.

Findings
The result indicates a significant negative income effect for those who have been in NEET, and is larger for those who have been in NEET for several consecutive periods of time. Individuals who were in NEET during 2001-2003 had on average 62 per cent lower income compared with their twin in 2011. The corresponding number for individuals who were in NEET for just one period was 33 per cent. Hence, time in NEET reduces income. The results show that the long-term scarring effect is not affected by age.

Originality/value
This study utilises for the first time a twin-based estimation method to measure the long-term effect of inactivity. Most studies focus solely on young people, but the authors also include an older group of people.

JEL Classification: J20, J24, J30, J60

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