Saturday, 28 March 2020

Modelling the spatial extent and severity of extreme European windstorms

an article by Paul Sharkey (British Broadcasting Corporation, Salford, UK), Jonathan A. Tawn (Lancaster University, UK) and Simon J. Brown (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK) published in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Applied Statistics: Series C Volume 69 Issue 2 (April 2020)


Windstorms are a primary natural hazard affecting Europe that are commonly linked to substantial property and infrastructural damage and are responsible for the largest spatially aggregated financial losses. Such extreme winds are typically generated by extratropical cyclone systems originating in the North Atlantic and passing over Europe.

Previous statistical studies tend to model extreme winds at a given set of sites, corresponding to inference in an Eulerian framework.

Such inference cannot incorporate knowledge of the life cycle and progression of extratropical cyclones across the region and is forced to make restrictive assumptions about the extremal dependence structure.

We take an entirely different approach which overcomes these limitations by working in a Lagrangian framework. Specifically, we model the development of windstorms over time, preserving the physical characteristics linking the windstorm and the cyclone track, the path of local vorticity maxima, and make a key finding that the spatial extent of extratropical windstorms becomes more localised as its magnitude increases irrespective of the location of the storm track.

Our model allows simulation of synthetic windstorm events to derive the joint distributional features over any set of sites giving physically consistent extrapolations to rarer events. From such simulations improved estimates of this hazard can be achieved in terms of both intensity and area affected.

Full text (PDF 28pp)

climate_extremes, extratropical_cyclones, extreme_value_analysis, Lagrangian_model, spatial_dependence,

Digital video forensics: a comprehensive survey

an article Mohammad A. Alsmirat, Ruba A. Al-Hussien,  Wala'a T. Al-Sarayrah and Yaser Jararweh (Jordan University of Science and Technology) and Morad Etier (The Hashemite University, Jordan) published in International Journal of Advanced Intelligence Paradigms Volume 15 No. 4 (2020)


The wide spread of digital devices and tools causes the simplification of the manipulation of any digital multimedia content. As a result, digital videos and photos are not trusted to be used as evidence in courts.

This fact raises the need for finding techniques to ensure the authenticity of digital multimedia contents.

Experts in digital-signal processing conducted a huge number of researches to find new strategies, using digital forensics, to verify digital evidences and trace its origins.

The aim of this paper is to collect and provide the definitions of the main concepts related to media forensics.

Also, this paper gives an overview of the different techniques used in media forensics concentrating on video forensics.

Furthermore, it classifies the work done in the field according to the main technique used in the proposed solution approach.

video_forensic, image_forensic, digital_forensic, video_compression, double_compression, video_manipulation,

Unsettling the Anti-Welfare Commonsense: The Potential in Participatory Research with People Living in Poverty

an article by Ruth Patrick (University of York, UK) published in Journal of Social Policy Volume 49 Issue 2 (April 2020)


Drawing on participatory research with people living in poverty, this article details the possibilities inherent in this research tradition and its particular applicability and as yet often unrealised potential for poverty and social security research.

The dominant framing of ‘welfare’ and poverty foregrounds elite political and politicised accounts, which place emphasis on individual and behavioural drivers of poverty, and imply that the receipt of ‘welfare’ is necessarily and inevitably problematic. A large body of academic evidence counters this framing, illustrating the extent to which popular characterisations are out of step with lived realities.

What is often missing, however, are the voices and expertise of those directly affected by poverty and welfare reform.

This article argues that placing experts by experience on poverty at the centre of research efforts is best understood as constituting a direct challenge to the marginalising and silencing of the voices and perspectives of people living in poverty. While this hints at participatory research’s great potential, it is vital also to recognise the inherent challenges of taking a participatory approach.

Significantly, though, participatory research can undermine popular characterisations of poverty and welfare and provide opportunities for alternative narratives to emerge, narratives which could contribute to the building of a pro-welfare imaginary over time.

participatory_research, poverty, welfare, social_security, experts_by_experience,

Introduction: [to the special issue] expulsion and citizenship in the 21st century

Rutger Birnie (European University Institute, Florence, Italy) and Rainer Bauböck (Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria; European University Institute, Florence, Italy) published in Citizenship Studies Volume 24 Issue 3 (2020)


Deportation and denationalisation policies, which states employ to expel persons from their territory and membership respectively, have steadily increased in prominence over the last two decades.

This special issue investigates these distinct but related phenomena and their relationship with, and implications for our understanding of, citizenship.

In this editorial introduction, we outline the two main questions the different contributions to this special issue address.

First, why has the 21st century seen a (partial) reversal of the trend of increasingly constrained denationalisation and deportation practices that occurred in the second half of the 20th century?

Second, what are the normative implications of this reversal, specifically for our understanding of citizenship and belonging in our increasingly interconnected and mobile world?

The individual contributions to this issue are introduced throughout, and the introduction concludes with some remarks on future research.

Full text (PDF 13pp)

deportation, denationalisation, expulsion, banishment, citizenship,

Having read that you may feel moved to look in more detail.
To facilitate that I append the ToC with its links in preference to making separate posts

Banishment and the pre-history of legitimate expulsion power
Matthew J Gibney

The power ro expel vs the rights of migrants: expulsion and freedom of movement in the Federal Republic of Germany : 1960-1970s
Janis Panagiotidis

Beyond the deportation regime: differential state interests and capacities in dealing with (non-)deportability in Europe
Arjen Leerkes and Marieke Van Houte

When losing citizenship is fine: denationalisation and permanent expatriation
Jules Lepoutre

Just what’s wrong with losing citizenship? Examining revocation of citizenship from a non-domination perspective
Iseult Honohan

Citizenship, domicile and deportability: who should be exempt from the state’s power to expel?
Rutger Birnie

A free movement paradox: denationalisation and deportation in mobile societies
Rainer Baubock

The ESM must help against the pandemic: The case of Spain

Aitor Erce (affiliation unknown), Antonio Garcia Pascual (Johns Hopkins University) and Toni Roldán Monés (ESADE Centre for Economic Policy and Political Economy) for VOX: CEPR’s Policy Portal

The amount of financial resources needed to fight the COVID-19 is so large that most euro area member states will need a backstop from Europe.

This column discusses how to use the European Stability Mechanism toolbox to finance the fight, using Spain as an example. It shows that an ESM loan with low margins and a smoothed repayment schedule would stabilise debt stocks and gross financing needs, and that ESM financing could help Spain save around €150 billion in interest payments between 2020 and 2030.

A combination of bold ESM and ECB support could reinforce Spain’s debt sustainability after the COVID-19 shock, and could do the same for other member states.

Continue reading

COVID-19, coronavirus, European_Stability_Mechanism, Spain, debt,

Fake news - Does perception matter more than the truth?

an article by Peter J. Jost, Johanna Pünder and Isabell Schulze-Lohoff (WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management, Germany) published in Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics Volume 85 (April 2020)


  • This paper examines how individuals make judgements and decisions when faced with fake news and how situational and social forces influence this.
  • The paper uses an experimental setup to test the effect of anchoring when subjects have different levels of awareness and are confronted with sources marked by different levels of authenticity.
  • Our results show that increasing subjects awareness as well as source credibility are crucial instruments for combating fake news.


The present paper experimentally investigates the effect of anchoring on fake news. In particular, we test how different levels of authority and awareness influence this effect.

Subjects were presented with false information as an unreasonably high anchor and had to fulfil a related estimation task afterwards. Results show that all subjects, including those who were told that the information was false, were influenced by the anchor.

Furthermore, a higher level of awareness of fake news led subjects to adjust more strongly downwards from the anchor. The effect of anchoring was also reduced when subjects without prior awareness were presented with arguments that were inconsistent with the anchor information.

fake_news, false_information, anchoring,

Friday, 27 March 2020

Mismatched students and universities

an article published in CentrePiece Volume 25 Issue 1 (March/Spring 2020)
Paper No CEPCP573

Higher education has long been thought of as a tool to equalise opportunities. But according to research by Gill Wyness and colleagues, if we really want to improve the life chances of disadvantaged students, we need to pay much more attention to the types of universities and subjects in which they enrol.

Continue reading (PDF 2pp)

JEL Classification: I22, I23, I28

higher_education, educational_economics, college_choice, mismatch, under-match,

This article summarises 'Inequalities in Student to Course Match: Evidence from Linked Administrative Data' by Stuart Campbell, Lindsey Macmillan, Richard Murphy and Gill Wyness, CEP Discussion Paper No. 1647