Friday, 1 February 2019

Economic uncertainty and fertility cycles: The case of the post-WWII baby boom

a column by Bastien Chabé-Ferret and Paula Gobbi for VOX: CEPR’s Policy Portal

Between the early 1940s and the late 1960s, the secular decline in fertility that started at the turn of the 19th century in most developed countries was interrupted by a massive baby-boom.

This column argues that although much attention has focused on this boom, fertility rates preceding it were abnormally low. The evidence suggests that economic uncertainty can explain a substantial part of the major swings in fertility over the 20th century.

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