an article by Dexter Levick for DEMOS
Visions of a technological utopia in which humans are free of the shackles of work and where purpose-built robots undertake a myriad of tasks in their place has long been a motif of science fiction. Yet the seemingly exponential advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) means that vision may soon become a reality. A report published last year by IPPR concluded that one in three jobs are thought to be at risk from automation within the next two decades – the general consensus amongst academics being that these will be primarily low-skilled jobs. Recently released research by the OECD puts that number lower, but still suggests a significant impact, concluding one in ten jobs are likely to be automated.
Whether the actual number of jobs to be automated is one in three, one in ten or something else, automation will necessitate some kind of shift in social policy, including welfare. Science fiction may have presented us with stark depictions of the process of automation, but it has little to offer about what that shift should look like – for example, how our welfare system will need to adapt to a labour economy in which AI plays a key role.
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