Today [21 March 2018] the ONS published the latest pay growth figures covering the year to January. These, along with yesterday’s inflation data, suggest that the squeeze which has dragged down real pay for twelve months is finally over.
However, at the risk of sounding Eeyore-ish, pay growth is likely to remain subdued for the rest of the year, if not longer. Nominal pay growth is currently running at 2.6 per cent and, although inflation is falling, if it settles at 2 per cent then the best we can look forward to is pay growth of around 0.6 per cent this year.
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