Studying statistics is not the only way to spot signs of a downturn. Here are a few of the more unlikely economic indicators
Does the divorce rate indicate a downturn?
Photograph: Jamie Grill/Getty Images/Tetra images RF
In the search for how to predict the next recession, – sadly, you just know another one will be along sooner or later – economists are willing to look well beyond the traditional statistics.
Researchers at the National Bureau of Economic Research think they might have found a new way to spot recessions early, based on a long-running truism that birthrates fall during recessions. They have gone one step earlier and looked at conception rates instead, and found these drop several months before any other signs of a recession – meaning we might have a new way to see them coming. However, as a sign no indicator is perfect, the US conception rate appeared to drop sharply late in 2014, with no corresponding recession having followed – yet.
It’s not the first attempt to find a nontraditional way to spot recessions – here are a few others.
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