How confident are we in forecasting the automation of work?

an article by Elliot Jones for the DEMOS blog

Earlier today I blogged what the BBC Business News was saying about the ONS forecast, this one is more detailed.

This week, the Office for National Statistics released their first statistics on which occupations they believe are at the highest risk of automation across England. They estimate about 7.4% of all jobs are at high risk of automation, i.e. there is a 70%+ probability that workers in that occupation will be replaced with some combination of software and robotics. In particular, they predict:

1. Over 10% of roles held by women are at high risk of automation, compared to 4% of men’s roles.
2. 15.7% of 20-24-year-olds are in roles that are at high risk of automation, more than any other age group.
3. The North-East, the East of England, Cornwall and Devon have the highest average risk of local jobs being automated, whereas the rest of the South and London have the lowest average risk of automation.

Forecasts like these are an important tool in making effective long-term policy decisions. Where do we need to invest in reskilling? What skills should form the basis of our education and training system to future-proof our economy? To what extent is unemployment systematic versus cyclical? All of these are important questions a robust forecast could help us answer. However, there are reasons to take this forecast with more than a pinch of salt.

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