a column by Yi Huang, Ugo Panizza and Richard Varghese for VOX: CEPR’s Policy Portal
Establishing the presence of a causal link from public debt to economic growth and investment has proved challenging.
This column uses data for nearly 550,000 firms in 69 countries to show that government debt affects corporate investment by tightening the credit constraints faced by private firms. Higher levels of public debt increase the correlation between investment and cashflow for firms that are more likely to be credit constrained – i.e. unlisted, small, and young firms – but appear to have no effect on the correlation between cash and investment of listed, well-established, and large firms.
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