Climate and society in long‐term perspective: Opportunities and pitfalls in the use of historical datasets

an article by Bas J. P. van Bavel, Michail Moatsos and Joris Roosen (Utrecht University, the Netherlands), Daniel R. Curtis (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands), Matthew J. Hannaford (University of Lincoln, UK) and Tim Soens (University of Antwerp, Belgium) published in WIREs Climate Change Volume 10 Issue 6 (November/December 2019)

Visual abstract

Recent literature investigating long‐term interactions between climate and society increasingly utilises historical big data. Too often this is done without applying historical criticism, which may lead to misguided narratives.
We propose a set of interventions to avoid this and optimise the use of historical datasets.



Abstract

Recent advances in paleoclimatology and the growing digital availability of large historical datasets on human activity have created new opportunities to investigate long‐term interactions between climate and society. However, noncritical use of historical datasets can create pitfalls, resulting in misleading findings that may become entrenched as accepted knowledge.

We demonstrate pitfalls in the content, use and interpretation of historical datasets in research into climate and society interaction through a systematic review of recent studies

1. conflict incidence,
2. plague outbreaks and
3. agricultural productivity changes.

We propose three sets of interventions to overcome these pitfalls, which involve a more critical and multidisciplinary collection and construction of historical datasets, increased specificity and transparency about uncertainty or biases, and replacing inductive with deductive approaches to causality.

This will improve the validity and robustness of interpretations on the long‐term relationship between climate and society.

Full text (PDF 18pp)

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