a post by David Beerling for the OUP blog
“Green and white leaf plant” by Jackie DiLorenzo. Public Domain via Unsplash
The amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by burning of fossil fuels is at a staggering all time high of 34 billion tonnes, having risen every decade since the 1960s. Not surprisingly, our carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels, and land-use changes, including deforestation, have raised the atmospheric concentration of this major greenhouse gas to a level unprecedented in human history.
What’s more, the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide has risen so rapidly over the past few decades that Earth’s temperature has yet to fully adjust to the new warmer climate it dictates. This means that even if we could magically stop our carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels overnight, we have already committed Earth to transition to a warmer climate. Global temperatures have risen by more than 1°C since the 1970s. How much more warming are we likely to experience? Another 0.5°C, 1.5°C, 2.5°C or worse? Scientists are working urgently to try and better constrain this number. Meantime, over 190 nations worldwide signed up to the 2015 Paris Agreement with the goal of limiting warming to less than 2°C and ideally less than 1.5°C. Given the current situation, even a lenient 2°C target now looks wildly optimistic, especially given 34+ billion tonnes of carbon dioxide are added every year we delay mitigation measures.
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