Monday, 4 November 2019

Not so welcome here? Modelling the impact of ethnic in-movers on the length of stay of home-owners in micro-neighbourhoods

an article by Sue Easton (University of Leicester, UK) and Gwilym Pryce (University of Sheffield, UK) published in Urban Studies Volume 56 Issue 14 (November 2019)

Abstract

This paper considers the length of stay of home-owners with white British names in the 40% most-deprived census areas of Glasgow, Scotland. We estimate the impact of ethnically ‘other’ name-group inflows through property purchases at the micro-neighbourhood level.

We use a novel longitudinal data set, constructed from the population of home-buyers recorded in all property transaction records from 2003 to 2014, from which we impute ethnicity using name-matching software.

We estimate how the survival time (length of ownership) of home-owners with white British names is affected by in-migration of house-buyers from different ethnic name-groups into the micro-neighbourhood, defined as a 50 m radius around each home.

Results suggest a complex set of associations between ethnically ‘other’ purchasers/in-movers (based on name groups) and duration of home-ownership for white-British named owners. The most consistent finding is for in-moving purchasers with Pakistani (primarily Muslim) names, which tend to have a relatively large accelerant effect on the moving propensity of home-owners who have white British names. This was true in areas of both high and low non-white ethnic population share.

We also find evidence of nonlinearity in this relationship: the accelerant effect diminishes with each additional in-move from purchasers with Pakistani names. The name group with the largest overall accelerant effect was for in-movers with non-white Other names, which were also primarily Muslim in origin, though this effect was less consistent across models.


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