Caution: Trade uncertainty is rising and can harm the global economy

a column by Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom and Davide Furceri for VOX: CEPR’s Policy Portal

Recent developments have inspired efforts to measure trade uncertainty. This column presents a new index of world trade uncertainty for 143 countries, measured on a quarterly basis from 1996 onwards, using the Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. The index shows that uncertainty in trade is rising sharply. This has important implications for global economic prospects.

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