Climate migration frightens... climate poverty is frightening!

a column by Michał Burzyński, Christoph Deuster, Frédéric Docquier and Jaime de Melo for VOX: CEPR’s Policy Portal

There has been much discourse on how long-term climate change will affect human mobility over the course of the 21st century.

This column estimates the long-term welfare and mobility responses to climate change. Depending on the scenario, climate change will force between 210 and 320 million people to move, mostly within their own countries. Massive international flows of climate refugees are unlikely, except under generalised and persistent conflicts. The poorest economies will be hardest hit, thus increasing global inequality and extreme poverty.

Figure 2 Number and type of climate migrants (million per 30-year window)

   

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As always I ask you to read the column for the full explanation of the figure above.

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Adapt or be flooded

a column by Klaus Desmet, Dávid Krisztián Nagy and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg for VOX: CEPR’s Policy Portal

Assessments of the economic cost of a rise in sea-level are often limited to estimating the current value of structures and output in low-lying coastal areas.

This column argues that understanding how economic activity will move when faced with flooding is key to correctly evaluating the cost of permanent inundation. When using a high-resolution dynamic spatial model of the world economy, combined with state-of-the-art local projections of sea-level rise for the next 200 years, the cost is substantially lower than when ignoring adaptation through moving. There is huge heterogeneity across space though, with some low-lying coastal areas hit particularly hard.

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A rational backlash against globalisation

a column by Lubos Pastor and Pietro Veronesi for VIX: CEPR’s Policy Portal

The vote for Brexit and the election of protectionist Donald Trump to the US presidency – two momentous markers of the ongoing pushback against globalisation – led some to question the rationality of voters.

This column presents a framework that demonstrates how the populist backlash against globalisation is actually a rational voter response when the economy is strong and inequality is high. It highlights the fragility of globalisation in a democratic society that values equality.

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Employee Misuse of Information Technology Resources: Testing a Contemporary Deterrence Model

an article by John D'Arcy (University of Delaware, Newark, USA) and Sarv Devaraj (University of Notre Dame, USA) published in Decision Sciences Volume 43 Issue 6 (December 2012)

Abstract

Recent research in information systems and operations management has considered the positive impacts of information technology (IT).

However, an undesirable side effect of firms’ increasing reliance on IT to support the distribution and delivery of goods and services to customers is a greater exposure to a diverse set of IT security risks. One such risk is intentional employee misuse of technology resources.

In this article, we draw upon modern deterrence frameworks to develop a predictive model of technology misuse intention that incorporates formal and informal sanctions as well as employment context factors. The model specifies previously untested relationships between formal and informal sanctions, thereby providing fresh insight into the role of sanctions in deterring technology misuse in organisations.

Our results suggest that a predisposition toward the need for social approval and moral beliefs regarding the behaviour are key determinants of technology misuse. Contrary to criminological research that has questioned the relative importance of formal sanctions in the deterrence process, we also found that the threat of formal sanctions has both direct and indirect influences on technology misuse intention.

Further, from an employment context standpoint, employees who spend more working days away from the office (i.e., “virtual” mode) appear more inclined to misuse their organization’s technology resources. The findings have implications for the research and practice of technology management.

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