Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts

Tuesday, 3 December 2019

A layperson-friendly introduction to MMT, a heterodox school of economics that could finance a Green New Deal

a post by Cory Doctorow for the Boing Boing blog



Modern Monetary Theory (AKA MMT) is the latest incarnation of a long-running current in economic thought, once called Chartalism, which has gained prominence in recent years as an alternative to austerity economics, whose dictates have immiserated millions, destabilized world politics, and threaten the extinction of the human race thanks to climate inaction in the guise of "fiscal restraint."

MMT's core precept is that governments first spend money into existence and then tax it out of existence (contrast this with the standard account that says that governments must tax citizens to pay for programs, which raises the question, "How did the citizens get the money to pay for their taxes unless the government first spent that money into existence, given that governments are the sole source of currency?").

The implications for this are relatively easy to follow, but are profound in terms of where they lead you. MMTers hold that sovereign currency issuers (most countries, but not Eurozone countries like Greece, say) cannot default on their debts so long as those debts are denominated in the currency they issue (unlike Venezuela, say, which owed debts denominated in US dollars).

And while government spending can lead to inflation, it's not deficits that cause inflation, it's government spending on things that the private sector is also seeking to buy -- if the government is procuring materials, labor or goods that the private sector is already using, it creates a bidding war that drives up the prices of these things. But if there is stuff that the private sector is not using -- notably, if there are unemployed people who want work that the private sector isn't delivering -- then the state can spend as much as it needs to mobilize that labor in service to public goals, like remediating climate change.

And even when governments do spend money into existence to buy things the private sector is using, it needn't be inflationary. The most prominent example of massive, non-inflationary public spending is WWII, when governments procured a huge amount of things the private sector was using (including labor and materials) but despite all that spending, states were able to control inflation by selling war bonds, which sequestered away the new capital so it wasn't available to chase the things the state needed to tool up for war.

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It’s worth clicking through to read the comments as well.


Thursday, 21 November 2019

To build a circular economy, we need to put recycling in the bin

Recycling is linear, but the economy shouldn't be.

a post by Alexandre Lemille for the Big Think blog

Too often the concept of a circular economy is muddled up with some kind of advanced recycling process that would mean keeping our industrial system as it is and preserving a growing consumption model.

This idea is based on a belief that recycling will take care of everything.

One of the most startling examples of this is the part of the European Union's Circular Economy Action Plan which aims to increase recycling rates: up to 70% of all packaging waste by 2030 and 65% of all municipal waste by 2035. In a properly built circular economy, one should rather focus on avoiding the recycling stage at all costs. It may sound straightforward, but preventing waste from being created in the first place is the only realistic strategy.

While we obviously need to continue recycling for quite some time, putting the emphasis on genuine circular innovations – that is, moving us away from a waste-based model – should be our sole objective.

Reprinted [by Big Think] with permission of the World Economic Forum.

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Wednesday, 30 October 2019

Explaining the Neoliberal turn

a post from Transforming Society: a space where research evidence and critique can create positive social change

In this long read, Roger Brown, author of The Inequality Crisis: The Facts and What We Can Do About It, outlines causes of the Neoliberal turn and shows how it has created vastly increased and unjust social inequality. Crucially, he explains where we need to begin in order to reverse the tide.

In November 1984, at the age of 90, the former Prime Minister, the Earl of Stockton (previously, Mr Harold Macmillan), made his maiden speech in the House of Lords. Besides warning, somewhat presciently, about a growing division of comparative prosperity in the South and an ailing North and Midlands, he asked where the theories of monetarism had really come from:

“Was it America?” he inquired, “Or was it Tibet? It is quite true, many of your Lordships will remember it operating in the nursery. How do you treat a cold? One nanny said, “Feed a cold”; she was a neo-Keynesian. The other said “Starve a cold”; she was a monetarist.

For about thirty years after the end of the Second World War, the advanced economies of the West enjoyed unprecedented prosperity. There were big increases in growth and productivity; there was full or near-full employment; economic inequality fell; home ownership increased; there was a considerable degree of financial stability.

Since the mid-70s we have had much smaller increases in growth, productivity and investment; lower savings and higher debt; higher unemployment, with many leaving the workforce altogether; greater market concentration; greater inequality; falling social mobility; greater poverty; increased fraud and other forms of crime; reduced trust, especially in institutions; and recurrent financial crises. Even the growth in home-ownership has tailed off. Only on inflation has the performance of the major Western economies since the mid-1970s been better than before. So why did most Western countries abandon what, on nearly all economic and social criteria, was a successful model, in favour of one that has been so much less successful?

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Tuesday, 22 October 2019

Thomas Piketty Argues — Convincingly — That Parties Across The Spectrum Have Been Catering To Elites

posted by S. Abbas Raza in 3 Quarks Daily

Crawford Kilian in The Tyee:

Thomas Piketty’s new book Capital and Ideology won’t be available in English until next March. At 1,150 pages, it will likely be more bought than read. But some of its ideas are already causing a stir, and one insight in particular could explain how the Canadian election will go.

In a 180-page report [Brahmin Left vs Merchant Right] published in March 2018, Piketty documented a remarkable shift in the political “cleavages” of Britain, France, and the U.S. Those cleavages certainly apply to Canada and other nations as well.

“In the 1950s-1960s,” Piketty writes, “the vote for ‘left-wing’ (socialist-labour-democratic) parties was associated with lower education and lower income voters. This corresponds to what one might label a ‘class-based’ party system: lower class voters from the different dimensions (lower education voters, lower income voters, etc.) tend to vote for the same party or coalition, while upper and middle class voters from the different dimensions tend to vote for the other party or coalition.”

Having won the Second World War, the U.S. and its allies designed an economic system that would reward workers with job stability and relatively high income. This was not out of the goodness of their hearts; the late British historian Tony Judt argued that Western governments had seen workers turn communist after the First World War, while the middle classes turned fascist. They forestalled a repeat by imposing various forms of social democracy on themselves: health care, respect for unions, greater access to education, high tax rates on the wealthy.

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Saturday, 12 October 2019

Can we create an empathic alternative to the capitalist system?

a post by Murilo Johas Menezes for the Big Think blog

Is capitalism naturally unempathetic?

People bathe at roadside municipal taps in Delhi, India.
People bathe at roadside municipal taps in Delhi, India … capitalism has created gross inequalities like a lack of proper sanitation for millions worldwide.                         Image: REUTERS/Ahmad Masood

Any attempt to propose a detailed alternative to the capitalist economic system in a short article could be seen as somewhat presumptuous.

How different economic models are established and how they work around the globe in distinct realities and societies is enormously complex. But, whatever the difficulties in envisioning an alternative, there seems to be a growing consensus on the existing situation: the capitalist system is not working for everyone.

The current model

Capitalism has brought important contributions over the last decades. These include the flourishing of technologies used for renewable energies, aligned with the necessity of low-carbon economies; medical breakthroughs that have substantially increased life expectancy across the globe; along with wealth creation and the growth of emerging economies that has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of extreme poverty.

Yet, these developments have come at a high cost. Humanity is now facing, at an unprecedented scale, several social and environmental problems that are intrinsic to the very nature of the current capitalist model – its incentive structures and how private players prioritize maximizing profits over an approach that promotes social inclusion and environmental resilience.


Reprinted [by Big Think] with permission of the World Economic Forum. Read the original article.


Tuesday, 8 October 2019

How Ergodicity Reimagines Economics For The Benefit Of Us All

Posted by Morgan Meis in 3 Quarks Daily

Mark Buchanan at berfrois


Image via Wikimedia Commons (cc)

The upshot is that a subtle and mostly forgotten centuries-old choice in mathematical thinking has sent economics hurtling down a strange path. Only now are we beginning to learn how it might have been otherwise – and how a more realistic approach could help re-align economic orthodoxy with reality, to the benefit of all.

Of particular importance, the approach brings a new perspective to our understanding of cooperation and competition, and the conditions under which beneficial cooperative activity is possible. Standard thinking in economics finds limited scope for cooperation, as individual people or businesses seeking their own self-interest should cooperate only if, by working together, they can do better than by working alone. This is the case, for example, if the different parties have complementary skills or resources. In the absence of possibilities for beneficial exchange, it would make no sense for an agent with more resources to share or pool them together with an agent who has less.

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Tuesday, 13 August 2019

What does progress look like if we stop pursuing economic growth?

via Transforming Society from Policy Press

In their ground-breaking book, The Economics of Arrival, Katherine Trebeck and Jeremy Williams argue that, although everyday economics tells us there is no such thing as enough growth, we have, in fact, ‘arrived’. Economic growth has already brought unrivalled prosperity for GDP-rich countries; we have enough.

The challenge is now to make ourselves at home with this prosperity, to ensure we all enjoy the fruits of growth before they rot, through debt, inequality, climate change and fractured politics.

If growth is an inadequate goal, what should we be pursuing instead? There are many forms of progress, for both countries that have arrived and countries who are not there yet.

It’s important to underline the fact that growth still matters in our thinking. Growth makes arrival possible, but context is everything. Wherever people don’t have enough for a good standard of living, growth can be vital – as long as it’s shared and put to good use. But once diminishing marginal returns set in, it’s not clear what more growth is for; its work is done.

We use a variety of metaphors for this in the book. We talk about the economy being grown up, like a mature tree reaching its full and rightful size. We talk about building a house, and how growth is like the bricks and concrete that provides the structure of the house, but not the warmth and welcome of the home. In the same way, we rely on growth at the earlier stages of development to provide the resources, income, infrastructure and materials to provide a good life for everyone. Growth gives us the foundations on which to build a lasting home – but you don’t live in the foundations.

What comes afterwards is going to be a more qualitative form of progress, and the book explores a number of different avenues for progress after growth.

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Thursday, 13 June 2019

Inequality makes a nation poorer

a post by Cory Doctorow for the Boing Boing blog



Responding to Professor Sir Angus Deaton’s report into the causes of inequality, economics writer Chris Dillow provides an excellent list of eight ways in which unequal societies sacrifice overall economic growth and national prosperity to preserve the fortunes of their elites.

Topping the list is the diversion of investment resources from innovative products and services into socially useless and inefficient "guard labor" (everything from surveillance to high walls to alarm systems to actual armed guards).

Beyond that, inequality produces an erosion of the trust that is a precondition for growth; unequal access to education and opportunity which means that poor peoples' contributions to national wealth are never realized.

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Tuesday, 30 April 2019

Will robots really take our jobs? [feedly]

a post by Daniel Aaronson and Brian Phelan for the OUP blog


Robot arm technology by jarmoluk. Public domain via Pixabay

The fear of automation technology and its potential to displace a large portion of the global labor force is nearly ubiquitous. A 2018 survey from the Pew Research Center reports that almost 80 percent of respondents across 10 countries believe that robots and computers are likely to take over much of the work currently done by humans sometime in the next 50 years and this change will cause much more harm than good, including job loss and rising inequality.

A certain unease about technology is warranted as there is strong evidence that technological innovation causes some people to lose their jobs. However, there is no credible evidence that technological change – at any point in time – has led to a net decline in overall employment. Still, it’s only natural to wonder whether this time could be different.

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Tuesday, 12 March 2019

A thorough defense of Modern Monetary Theory

a post by Cary Doctorow for the Boing Boing blog



"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win" -- Gandhi's aphorism neatly describes the trajectory to date of Modern Monetary Theory, the latest incarnation of "chartalism," which holds that money comes into existence through government spending, and is taken out of circulation when the government taxes it back -- which means that without government deficit spending, there is no money, and which also means that the government doesn't have to fund its operations through taxes, but rather, it can issue as much currency as it needs to operate, within limits.

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NOW I understand, at least I think I do. H.


Friday, 1 February 2019

The End of Economics?

an article by Fareed Zakaria for Foreign Policy via Arts & Letters Daily

Human beings are rarely rational—so it’s time we all stopped pretending they are.

The Fearless Girl statue looks up at Wall Street's Charging Bull sculpture in New York on March 29, 2018.  (Volkan Furuncu/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
The Fearless Girl statue looks up at Wall Street's Charging Bull sculpture in New York on March 29, 2018. (Volkan Furuncu/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images) 

In 1998, as the Asian financial crisis was ravaging what had been some of the fastest-growing economies in the world, the New Yorker ran an article describing the international rescue efforts. It profiled the super-diplomat of the day, a big-idea man the Economist had recently likened to Henry Kissinger. The New Yorker went further, noting that when he arrived in Japan in June, this American official was treated “as if he were General [Douglas] MacArthur.” In retrospect, such reverence seems surprising, given that the man in question, Larry Summers, was a disheveled, somewhat awkward nerd then serving as the U.S. deputy treasury secretary. His extraordinary status owed, in part, to the fact that the United States was then (and still is) the world’s sole superpower and the fact that Summers was (and still is) extremely intelligent. But the biggest reason for Summers’s welcome was the widespread perception that he possessed a special knowledge that would save Asia from collapse. Summers was an economist.

During the Cold War, the tensions that defined the world were ideological and geopolitical. As a result, the superstar experts of that era were those with special expertise in those areas. And policymakers who could combine an understanding of both, such as Kissinger, George Kennan, and Zbigniew Brzezinski, ascended to the top of the heap, winning the admiration of both politicians and the public. Once the Cold War ended, however, geopolitical and ideological issues faded in significance, overshadowed by the rapidly expanding global market as formerly socialist countries joined the Western free trade system. All of a sudden, the most valuable intellectual training and practical experience became economics, which was seen as the secret sauce that could make and unmake nations. In 1999, after the Asian crisis abated, Time magazine ran a cover story with a photograph of Summers, U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and the headline “The Committee to Save the World.”

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Monday, 28 January 2019

The "reverse supply chain": vast warehouses of deeply discounted, returned goods

a post by Cory Doctorow for the Boing Boing blog



When you return your unwanted Amazon purchases, they end up with discounters who sell them by the palletload at pennies on the dollar, and millions of "reverse supply chain" specialists bid on these pallets of miscellania, sort the usable from the useless, repackage it, and make it available for sale again.

The largest of these companies is Liquidity Services/liquidation.com, with 3.35 million registered users. Some of these are bargain hunters, but others are resellers hope to pan gold from the river of rejected trash and put it back on sale.

Predictably, there's a get-rich-quick cult that has sprung up around liquidation resellers, with a whole supply chain (geddit?) of hustlers who will sell you lessons on how to achieve financial independence through canny liquidation arbitrage.

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Monday, 2 April 2018

Social exclusion factors influencing life satisfaction among older adults

an article by Joonyup Lee and John G Cagle (University of Maryland Baltimore, USA) published in Journal of Poverty and Social Justice Volume 26 Number 1 (February 2018)

Abstract

This study aims to examine the relative impact of social exclusion factors on older adults' life satisfaction. This study conducted a cross-sectional analysis of psychosocial measures from the 2012 wave of the Health and Retirement Study (N=4,139).

Results found that social exclusion factors indeed affect life satisfaction.

Health had the strongest effect on life satisfaction. Good social relationships also positively affect life satisfaction.

These findings call for considering multidimensionality of social exclusion in the future research.

Researchers and practitioners could pay greater attention to social exclusion, ways to measure it, and its impact on life satisfaction through this study.


Sunday, 11 February 2018

The internal economics of a popular Minecraft server are an object lesson in everything great and terrible about markets

a post by Cory Doctorow for the Boing Boing blog



Alice Maz was part of a small group of players who came to have near-total mastery over the internal economy of a popular Minecraft; Maz describes how her early fascination with the mechanics of complex multiplayer games carried over into an interest in economics and games, and that let her become a virtuoso player, and brilliant thinker, about games and economics.

Maz's long, fascinating essay about her business ventures in Minecraft are a potted lesson in economics, one that shows where financial engineering actually does something useful (providing liquidity, matching supply and demand) and the places where it becomes nothing more than a predatory drag on the "real economy" of people making amazing things in Minecraft.


Monday, 30 October 2017

10 ways we can reverse inequality in Britain

a Policy Press blog post (14 September 2017) by Roger Brown, author of The inequality crisis, who explains how economic inequality in Britain and other advanced Western countries has got so bad, and highlights the measures we need to undertake that will start to reverse this devastating trend.

Almost every day now the media carries stories about inequality and its effects.

In the past few weeks, the Department for Health has confirmed that the health gap between rich and poor in England is growing.

Reports by Lloyds Bank and the Social Market Foundation have drawn attention to our disparities in wealth, with a tenth of adults owning half of the country’s wealth while 15% own nothing or have negative wealth.

Respected independent ‘thinktanks’ like the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Resolution Foundation have repeated their warnings that, at a time when wages generally are only growing slowly, the combination of tax cuts and cuts in welfare benefits means that income inequality will increase further over the next few years.

“Economic inequality has increased in nearly every advanced Western country…”

This is not just an English or British issue. In March, International Monetary Fund (IMF) researchers estimated that the US economy had lost a year of consumption growth because of increased income polarisation. And of course inequality was a major factor in the Brexit vote and in the election of President Trump.

My interest in the subject was first aroused by my work on the introduction of markets into higher education. I found that the associated increase in competition through mechanisms like tuition fees had exacerbated the inequalities between universities and the constituencies they serve, without any significant compensating benefits. This led me to wonder if there might be parallels in the economy and society more generally.

What I established was that economic inequality has increased in nearly every advanced Western country over the past thirty or so years, and that this has led to a huge range of costs and detriments. Moreover, these costs and detriments are not only social. As the IMF research confirms, increased economic inequality has an economic cost as well. Above all, growing inequality is disabling democratic politics as the concentration of economic power is increasingly reflected in a concentration of political power (as can be seen most clearly in the US).

“Growing inequality is disabling democratic politics…”

But whilst nearly everyone agrees that – to paraphrase Dunning’s famous 1780 Parliamentary motion, economic inequality has increased, is increasing, and ought to be reduced – there is no agreement on how this should be done.

Broadly speaking, there are two schools of thought:

One – the ‘market’ view – is that increased inequality is the inevitable outcome of underlying structural developments such as globalisation, skill-biased technological change, and financialisation (the growing economic role of such processes as banking and securities trading) over which individual countries and governments have little control. These changes are leading to what have been termed ‘winner-take-all’ markets where those at the top gain rewards out of all proportion to their contribution to society.

The alternative, ‘institutional’, theory is that it is due to the political choices made in individual countries, and especially the neoliberal policies of deregulation, privatisation, tax reductions, welfare cutbacks and deflation pursued in most Western countries since the mid- to late-70s, but particularly associated with Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.

I believe that it is the combination of these underlying structural developments with those neoliberal policies that has driven the post-80s rise in inequality, with the US and Britain well above the other wealthy Western countries in the extent to which inequality has grown there over that period.

So the key to reversing, halting or slowing inequality lies in the first place in reversing these neoliberal policies, but without losing the benefits of properly regulated market competition in sectors where it is appropriate.

The following is a short list of measures that would start to reverse inequality in Britain:

  1. Require the potential impact on inequality to be a major test of every other policy or programme introduced by the Government.
  2. Show that we are serious about tax avoidance by reversing the long-term decline in the number of professional HMRC officials.
  3. Progressively adjust the balance between direct and indirect taxation (VAT), increasing the former and reducing the latter.
  4. Increase the income tax rates for higher earners (say, above £60,000).
  5. Introduce some form of wealth tax.
  6. Begin the rehabilitation of the trade unions by repealing most of the 2016 Trade Union Act.
  7. Reverse the cuts in welfare benefits made by the Coalition and Cameron Governments.
  8. Introduce measures that really will force companies to take account of interests wider than those of top management.
  9. Begin to end segregation in education by removing the charitable status of the private schools.
  10. Focus macroeconomic policy on demand and wage growth rather than inflation and corporate profits.
The Labour election manifesto has some proposals on these lines, but no political party has yet really got its mind round the full range of measures that are needed to combat inequality.

Until they do, inequality will continue to increase.

So says Mr Brown who is, obviously, speaking from a specific political viewpoint with which you may not agree. However, I hope that we can agree than widening inequality between those who have and those who have not can, and, in many instances, does, lead to disruption and violence. H

Monday, 4 September 2017

Economics of a good night’s sleep

via CentrePiece (Summer 2017)

The effects of sleep deprivation on economic activity have received surprisingly scant attention. Joan Costa-i-Font and Sarah Flèche use data on 14,000 families in the UK to investigate the link between mothers’ employment outcomes and their quality of sleep, measured by how often they are woken by their children at night.

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Any parent/carer of young children, and possibly the not-so-young, will empathise with the findings of this research.

By coincidence I have recently been reading an article from The New York Times (February 2017) which tells us that sleep is to allow us to forget, a time to allow the brain to reset itself.


Friday, 5 May 2017

Finance proud and industry vulnerable: When governments fail to defend the economic realm, citizens revolt

an article by Ann Pettifor (Director of Policy Research in Macroeconomics (PRIME)) published in Juncture Volume 23 Issue 4 (Spring 2017)

Abstract

The subordination of society to self-regulating international markets is the reason why British workers and industries so often fall prey to predatory financiers, writes Ann Pettifor.

It is also a fundamental cause of current political crises throughout the west – just as Karl Polanyi described [in “The Great Transformation” see Wikipedia articlealmost 80 years ago.

Unfortunately full text is only available for purchase


Tuesday, 1 November 2016

How to tell apart trade agreements that undermine democratic principles from those that don't

via Dani Rodrick’s weblog “Unconventional thoughts on economic development and globalization”

I discussed in an earlier post on Brexit how to think about international agreements and the constraints on state action they entail in terms of democratic legitimacy. Since that discussion has relevance beyond Brexit, I've pasted the relevant part here below. The basic point is this: the fact that an international rule is negotiated and accepted by a democratically elected government does not inherently make that rule democratically legitimate.

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Tuesday, 7 July 2015

Work on and live with purpose

a post on The Work Foundation’s blog by Jilly Forster

The good news – we’re living longer. The challenge – we haven’t updated the way we think about our working careers and ‘retirement’. You simply can’t finance a 30 year retirement with a 40 year working life. But that’s what it seems we’re trying to do! It’s time to redesign the approach to retirement.

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Friday, 12 June 2015

Pareto and Piketty: The Macroeconomics of Top Income and Wealth Inequality

an article by Charles I. Jones (Stanford University, California, and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts) published in Journal of Economic Perspectives Volume 29 Number 1 (Winter 2015)

First paragraph

Since the early 2000s, research by Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez (and their coauthors, including Anthony Atkinson and Gabriel Zucman) has revolutionized our understanding of income and wealth inequality. The crucial point of departure for this revolution is the extensive data they have used, based largely on administrative tax records.

Piketty’s (2014) Capital in the Twenty-First Century is the latest contribution in this line of work, especially with the new data it provides on capital and wealth. Piketty also proposes a framework for describing the underlying forces that affect inequality and wealth, and unlikely as it seems, a bit of algebra that plays an important role in Piketty’s book has even been seen on T-shirts:

Full text (PDF 18pp) not including appendix and data appendix

The same issue also contains an article by Thomas Piketty himself reflecting on his book Capital in the Twenty-First Century and an article The Window Tax: a Case Study in Excess Burden.
I could have sat and read all afternoon.
Wishing that I could afford the time to do so.