a column by Kevin Daly and Loughlan O'Doherty for VOX: CEPR’s Policy Portal
Recent years have seen emerging market economy inflation rates converge towards developed economy rates, as well as convergence between emerging markets. The sustained improved inflation performance in emerging markets has occurred even as unemployment in many of these economies has fallen to record lows. This column attributes the improved performance to two factors: increases in monetary policy credibility following the widespread introduction of inflation targeting, and a reduction in the frequency of emerging market currency crises, reflecting a secular improvement in their balance sheets.
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Showing posts with label long-term_unemployment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label long-term_unemployment. Show all posts
Friday, 23 March 2018
Tuesday, 30 April 2013
Predicting likelihood of long-term unemployment: the development of a UK jobseekers' classification instrument
Working paper no 116 by Simon Matty (Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)) published March 2103
This paper describes work undertaken by the Department for Work and Pensions to explore the feasibility of developing a profiling tool to predict, at the point of first claim, the likelihood of a new Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimant reaching long-term unemployment, defined as twelve months or more with a continuous claim.
The work was undertaken in response to the Department’s interest in the application of segmentation models to improve and refine service allocation and the emergence of such tools in other countries. Additionally, the 2007 review of the Government’s welfare to work strategy conducted by David Freud and the 2008 review on conditionality and support for those claiming benefits carried out by Professor Paul Gregg both recommended investigating the development of an accurate early identification model for all jobseekers based on the approach used in Australia.
A predictive model was built using logistic regression and based on data collected from a 2010 telephone survey of 5,600 new claimants combined with administrative data held by the Department.
The paper presents the variables that the modelling suggests are the most efficient predictors of future long-term unemployment. The paper then discusses model accuracy along with the implications for implementation in an operational context.
The results from this work have increased the Department for Work and Pensions’ understanding of predictive models and claimant segmentation and how they might function in practice. The Department is undertaking further work in this area to determine a high-level approach to claimant segmentation and to generate the necessary material to inform strategic decision-making about the use of segmentation approaches within this context.
Full text (PDF 63pp)
This paper describes work undertaken by the Department for Work and Pensions to explore the feasibility of developing a profiling tool to predict, at the point of first claim, the likelihood of a new Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimant reaching long-term unemployment, defined as twelve months or more with a continuous claim.
The work was undertaken in response to the Department’s interest in the application of segmentation models to improve and refine service allocation and the emergence of such tools in other countries. Additionally, the 2007 review of the Government’s welfare to work strategy conducted by David Freud and the 2008 review on conditionality and support for those claiming benefits carried out by Professor Paul Gregg both recommended investigating the development of an accurate early identification model for all jobseekers based on the approach used in Australia.
A predictive model was built using logistic regression and based on data collected from a 2010 telephone survey of 5,600 new claimants combined with administrative data held by the Department.
The paper presents the variables that the modelling suggests are the most efficient predictors of future long-term unemployment. The paper then discusses model accuracy along with the implications for implementation in an operational context.
The results from this work have increased the Department for Work and Pensions’ understanding of predictive models and claimant segmentation and how they might function in practice. The Department is undertaking further work in this area to determine a high-level approach to claimant segmentation and to generate the necessary material to inform strategic decision-making about the use of segmentation approaches within this context.
Full text (PDF 63pp)
Friday, 1 February 2013
Role of NGOs in the implementation of active labour market policies: The case of Finland and Sweden
an article by Thomas Babila Sama, (University of Jyväskylä, Finland) published in The International Journal of Leadership in Public Services Volume 8 Issume 3 (2013)
Abstract
Purpose
This is a mixed method comparative case study. The aim of this paper is to find the role played by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the implementation of the active labour market policies (ALMPs) of Finland and Sweden, and also the relationship that the NGOs have with the government of the two countries.
Design/methodology/approach
Two NGOs were selected in Finland and one NGO was selected in Sweden for the data collection. The two selected NGOs in Finland were Jyväskylän Katulähetys in the City of Jyväskylä and Pirkanmaan Sininauha in the City of Tampere. Meanwhile, the one selected NGO in Sweden was Stockholms Stadsmission in the City of Stockholm.
Primary data were collected through questionnaires and interviews, while secondary data were collected from literature reviews, books and internet websites.
A total of 130 employees responded to the questionnaires from the two selected NGOs in Finland, while 140 employees responded from the one selected NGO in Sweden. The questionnaires were analysed using SPSS.
Findings
The findings revealed that first, the selected NGOs play active role in the implementation of the ALMPs of Finland and Sweden by employing long-term unemployed people in the labour market.
Second, the findings revealed that the selected NGOs play active role in the implementation of the ALMPs of Finland and Sweden by providing social services, mobilizing local resources and undertaking other types of activities which have created jobs for the unemployed.
Last, the findings revealed that the selected NGOs play active role in the implementation of the ALMPs of Finland and Sweden by providing voluntary work to volunteers – some of who acquire skills that can help them to find a job in the open labour market.
Originality/value
The relationship between the NGOs and the Governments of Finland and Sweden was found to be one of partnership cooperation through the local Employment Offices and the City Councils. However, Finland was found to have a more bureaucratic system than Sweden in the implementation of their ALMPs with regard to NGOs.
The main similarity between the two countries was that the implementation of ALMPs with regard to NGOs, takes place at the local level through the local Employment Offices and the City Councils.
This study concluded that although Finland and Sweden are two “Nordic countries”, the two countries slightly differ in the implementation of their ALMPs with regard to NGOs.
Abstract
Purpose
This is a mixed method comparative case study. The aim of this paper is to find the role played by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the implementation of the active labour market policies (ALMPs) of Finland and Sweden, and also the relationship that the NGOs have with the government of the two countries.
Design/methodology/approach
Two NGOs were selected in Finland and one NGO was selected in Sweden for the data collection. The two selected NGOs in Finland were Jyväskylän Katulähetys in the City of Jyväskylä and Pirkanmaan Sininauha in the City of Tampere. Meanwhile, the one selected NGO in Sweden was Stockholms Stadsmission in the City of Stockholm.
Primary data were collected through questionnaires and interviews, while secondary data were collected from literature reviews, books and internet websites.
A total of 130 employees responded to the questionnaires from the two selected NGOs in Finland, while 140 employees responded from the one selected NGO in Sweden. The questionnaires were analysed using SPSS.
Findings
The findings revealed that first, the selected NGOs play active role in the implementation of the ALMPs of Finland and Sweden by employing long-term unemployed people in the labour market.
Second, the findings revealed that the selected NGOs play active role in the implementation of the ALMPs of Finland and Sweden by providing social services, mobilizing local resources and undertaking other types of activities which have created jobs for the unemployed.
Last, the findings revealed that the selected NGOs play active role in the implementation of the ALMPs of Finland and Sweden by providing voluntary work to volunteers – some of who acquire skills that can help them to find a job in the open labour market.
Originality/value
The relationship between the NGOs and the Governments of Finland and Sweden was found to be one of partnership cooperation through the local Employment Offices and the City Councils. However, Finland was found to have a more bureaucratic system than Sweden in the implementation of their ALMPs with regard to NGOs.
The main similarity between the two countries was that the implementation of ALMPs with regard to NGOs, takes place at the local level through the local Employment Offices and the City Councils.
This study concluded that although Finland and Sweden are two “Nordic countries”, the two countries slightly differ in the implementation of their ALMPs with regard to NGOs.
Tuesday, 22 January 2013
Keeping Work
Interim findings from longitudinal qualitative research on homeless people’s experiences of starting and staying in work published by Broadway in partnership with Business in the Community (December 2012)
Executive summary
The research
This report presents interim findings from longitudinal qualitative research into homeless people’s experiences of starting work. Most homeless people want to work but do not 1; those who do secure a job often fall out of employment2. Keeping Work explores in depth the experiences of 50 homeless people moving into work, by conducting regular interviews with them over their first six to 12 months after starting new jobs. The research aims to identify what helps homeless people sustain work and why some people lose their jobs. A full research report, including recommendations for policy-makers, service providers, employers, and homeless people wishing to move into work, will be published in June 2013.
Participants
This report is based on interviews with 50 currently or recently homeless people (who have lived in hostels or supported housing or slept rough). Initial interviews took place just before or just after starting a new job, and at the time of this report one or more follow-up interviews had been undertaken with 20 participants over their first one to ten months after starting work. Interviewees faced numerous challenges in finding and keeping work; self-reported data shows that half of those interviewed had been out of work for more than three years, half had criminal convictions and many had experienced drug, alcohol or mental health issues.
Recruiting to the project
A key challenge faced by researchers was recruiting people to take part in the research. Most agencies involved in recruitment of participants (including homelessness agencies with employment teams) found it hard to identify more than a small number of homeless people who they had helped into work. This suggests that, although agencies are clearly helping people who face barriers to employment into work, these people are primarily not core client groups such as hostel residents and those who have recently moved on. The final research report will explore this issue further.
50 jobs
Half of those interviewed accessed work through a specialist scheme provided by a voluntary organisation and others entered the mainstream job market. Only 15 had permanent contracts. Many of the 50 jobs represented were in key industries - catering and hospitality, construction, gardening and caretaking, driving and office work. Others included engineering, media, accountancy and football coaching.
Of the 50 participants, 12 are known to have fallen out of work during the research period. The most common reason for losing a job was temporary contracts or casual work ending. Four people were fired or asked not to come back to work. Several people seemed to have lost work because of a ‘one mistake and you’re out’ approach. Other reasons included not being appropriately skilled for the job and ‘unprofessional’ behaviour including anger management issues. People who were struggling in work but maintaining it, in comparison with people who had walked out of jobs or been fired, tended to have more in-work support (from either a manger or someone outside work).
Motivated to work
Those interviewed expressed a very strong motivation to work, despite often minimal or no financial gains: money was not a main motivator to move into work. A wide range of jobs gave participants a deep sense of satisfaction. Moving into work was part of a journey away from homelessness and other difficult issues. Key motivators were increased self-worth and making a positive contribution to society as well as saving for a deposit for a flat and being able to afford small luxuries. Work also alleviated boredom, reducing use of drink and drugs for some.
For many people, adapting to work came relatively easily. However, several people found adapting to the work environment more challenging, struggling with interacting with colleagues, dealing with anger and reporting sickness. This led to losing jobs in some cases.
Better off in work?
Many interviewees were willing to work for very little money: ten were receiving the minimum wage or an apprentice wage, and for several people, moving into work meant that they were worse off or only marginally better off than when they had been on benefits. Factors in this include the costs of working, debts (accrued both before and after moving into work) and delays in being paid. Several participants had had complex problems with benefits being sanctioned. Most participants had had better off in work calculations done for them by either Jobcentre Plus, a Work Programme advisor or another support worker; however, in some cases, these did not prove to be accurate, or to take into account actual outgoings. Many participants did not know how much money they would have coming in from work or benefits.
The participants would benefit from a benefits system which is easier to negotiate, helps people to avoid building up arrears when moving into work while living in a hostel and takes debt repayments and travel costs into account for better off calculations.
A time of change – issues outside work
Participants had an array of issues to cope with during their first few months at work which could sometimes be bewildering for them. Key issues were ensuring correct benefit payments and managing financially as well as often planning or undertaking a move into independent accommodation. High hostel rents could be difficult for those on a low income to meet alongside work-related outgoings, as could saving towards a deposit to move on. Some people felt that working was financially unsustainable despite wanting to work.
Support
Support with work-related and other issues can be crucial to help homeless people sustain work. For many participants, this support was most effectively provided by homelessness service providers. Participants received limited in-work support from Work Programme providers. In addition, support from line managers was a key factor in successfully settling into a job for some participants. For some people living in supported accommodation, the support provided by staff was vital. For others, staff withdrew support once they were in work in the belief that they were coping, and they did not receive the support they needed. Bullying and noise within hostels could also make working life harder to cope with.
Key interim findings
1 Singh, P (2005) No Home, No Job, Off the Streets and Into Work; Opinion Leader Research (2006) Homeless people and learning and skills: participation, barriers and progression, Crisis.
2 Figures from Business in the Community Ready for Work brochure (undated).
Full text (PDF 40pp)
Executive summary
The research
This report presents interim findings from longitudinal qualitative research into homeless people’s experiences of starting work. Most homeless people want to work but do not 1; those who do secure a job often fall out of employment2. Keeping Work explores in depth the experiences of 50 homeless people moving into work, by conducting regular interviews with them over their first six to 12 months after starting new jobs. The research aims to identify what helps homeless people sustain work and why some people lose their jobs. A full research report, including recommendations for policy-makers, service providers, employers, and homeless people wishing to move into work, will be published in June 2013.
Participants
This report is based on interviews with 50 currently or recently homeless people (who have lived in hostels or supported housing or slept rough). Initial interviews took place just before or just after starting a new job, and at the time of this report one or more follow-up interviews had been undertaken with 20 participants over their first one to ten months after starting work. Interviewees faced numerous challenges in finding and keeping work; self-reported data shows that half of those interviewed had been out of work for more than three years, half had criminal convictions and many had experienced drug, alcohol or mental health issues.
Recruiting to the project
A key challenge faced by researchers was recruiting people to take part in the research. Most agencies involved in recruitment of participants (including homelessness agencies with employment teams) found it hard to identify more than a small number of homeless people who they had helped into work. This suggests that, although agencies are clearly helping people who face barriers to employment into work, these people are primarily not core client groups such as hostel residents and those who have recently moved on. The final research report will explore this issue further.
50 jobs
Half of those interviewed accessed work through a specialist scheme provided by a voluntary organisation and others entered the mainstream job market. Only 15 had permanent contracts. Many of the 50 jobs represented were in key industries - catering and hospitality, construction, gardening and caretaking, driving and office work. Others included engineering, media, accountancy and football coaching.
Of the 50 participants, 12 are known to have fallen out of work during the research period. The most common reason for losing a job was temporary contracts or casual work ending. Four people were fired or asked not to come back to work. Several people seemed to have lost work because of a ‘one mistake and you’re out’ approach. Other reasons included not being appropriately skilled for the job and ‘unprofessional’ behaviour including anger management issues. People who were struggling in work but maintaining it, in comparison with people who had walked out of jobs or been fired, tended to have more in-work support (from either a manger or someone outside work).
Motivated to work
Those interviewed expressed a very strong motivation to work, despite often minimal or no financial gains: money was not a main motivator to move into work. A wide range of jobs gave participants a deep sense of satisfaction. Moving into work was part of a journey away from homelessness and other difficult issues. Key motivators were increased self-worth and making a positive contribution to society as well as saving for a deposit for a flat and being able to afford small luxuries. Work also alleviated boredom, reducing use of drink and drugs for some.
For many people, adapting to work came relatively easily. However, several people found adapting to the work environment more challenging, struggling with interacting with colleagues, dealing with anger and reporting sickness. This led to losing jobs in some cases.
Better off in work?
Many interviewees were willing to work for very little money: ten were receiving the minimum wage or an apprentice wage, and for several people, moving into work meant that they were worse off or only marginally better off than when they had been on benefits. Factors in this include the costs of working, debts (accrued both before and after moving into work) and delays in being paid. Several participants had had complex problems with benefits being sanctioned. Most participants had had better off in work calculations done for them by either Jobcentre Plus, a Work Programme advisor or another support worker; however, in some cases, these did not prove to be accurate, or to take into account actual outgoings. Many participants did not know how much money they would have coming in from work or benefits.
The participants would benefit from a benefits system which is easier to negotiate, helps people to avoid building up arrears when moving into work while living in a hostel and takes debt repayments and travel costs into account for better off calculations.
A time of change – issues outside work
Participants had an array of issues to cope with during their first few months at work which could sometimes be bewildering for them. Key issues were ensuring correct benefit payments and managing financially as well as often planning or undertaking a move into independent accommodation. High hostel rents could be difficult for those on a low income to meet alongside work-related outgoings, as could saving towards a deposit to move on. Some people felt that working was financially unsustainable despite wanting to work.
Support
Support with work-related and other issues can be crucial to help homeless people sustain work. For many participants, this support was most effectively provided by homelessness service providers. Participants received limited in-work support from Work Programme providers. In addition, support from line managers was a key factor in successfully settling into a job for some participants. For some people living in supported accommodation, the support provided by staff was vital. For others, staff withdrew support once they were in work in the belief that they were coping, and they did not receive the support they needed. Bullying and noise within hostels could also make working life harder to cope with.
Key interim findings
- Problems with recruitment to the research highlight the low number of homeless people being supported into work.
- Those starting work often need ongoing support. Some people said that support from their Work Programme provider or their hostel keyworker was inadequate or non existent. It is important that people who fall out of work remain linked in with employment support.
- The current benefits system can make it difficult for people who are currently or recently homeless who are moving from benefits into work. A simplified system would make it easier for people to move into work.
- Moving into work can be costly, with the need to buy travel tickets and clothes and (for some) to cope with the transition to a monthly salary. Many people accumulated personal loans and rent arrears over this period. People who received financial support over this period said that it was crucial.
1 Singh, P (2005) No Home, No Job, Off the Streets and Into Work; Opinion Leader Research (2006) Homeless people and learning and skills: participation, barriers and progression, Crisis.
2 Figures from Business in the Community Ready for Work brochure (undated).
Full text (PDF 40pp)
Thursday, 27 December 2012
Long-term unemployment in 2012
a report published by CESI (Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion)
Executive Summary
The release of the first Work Programme performance statistics on 27 November is an opportunity to review how successful the government has been in holding down long-term unemployment.
Long-term unemployment has more than doubled since 2008 and young people have been hit the hardest, with a 145% increase.
Long-term unemployment for those claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) has seen the largest increases – for all ages it is up 173% and for young people up 339%. This has been fuelled by claimants being switched to JSA from ‘inactive benefits’ – which have seen decreases in long-term claims.
Women have seen particularly sharp increases – a 173% increase in long-term unemployment, which includes a 289% increase in JSA long-term unemployment.
Being out of work for over a year has a significant impact on people’s confidence, finances and future earning power. Inclusion has argued that governments should focus on: preventing long-term unemployment and on helping those long-term unemployed to maximise their chances of getting and keeping employment.
Preventing long-term unemployment
Jobcentre Plus is the front line in preventing long-term unemployment. It is monitored by an ‘impact indicator’, which measures the number of new claimants that have stopped claiming within 12 months. The latest published figure shows that 87% of new claimants have left before 12 months, but this has worsened since 2010.
In comparison with the 1990s recession, Jobcentre Plus performance is considerably better. In 1991 one in four of all new claimants became long-term unemployed. Now it is one in six.
Performance has varied considerably since the start of the recession in 2008. Last autumn and winter, the speed at which people left JSA fell by between 15% and 25%. This is the same period that covers the first Work Programme performance results. This likely reflects both tough labour market conditions and the impact of significant changes in policy and programmes by the new government. However, since spring this year, off-flows have significantly improved – a sign that subsequent Work Programme results will also improve.
The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) recognises that the wider economy can affect Jobcentre Plus performance: ‘in a recession, even if Jobcentre Plus is performing well, the off-flow rate is likely to fall.’1 However, DWP does not currently recognise this for the Work Programme.
The Work Programme
The weaker than expected economy in 2011 means that DWP’s expectation for Work Programme performance in its first year is unrealistically high. We think a realistic benchmark for Work Programme performance in Year 1 is to reduce DWP’s minimum performance level (MPL) by 15%.
In the invitation to tender (ITT) for the financial year 2011–12 DWP originally set an MPL of 5.5% of all referrals achieving a job outcome in that same year. Because the programme started late, the first full operational year was June 2011 to May 2012 and the equivalent MPL is 6.1%.
However, this was set when the economy was forecast to grow. Instead we have had a double-dip recession. Inclusion has found a strong relationship between changes in gross domestic product and the rate at which unemployed people start jobs. We have used this to adjust the MPL so that it reflects the reality of the last year.
Our expectation is that tomorrow’s published results will be around 15% lower than planned – if they are above then contractors would have done well despite the recession. If they are below this, it will be an indication there have been deeper problems in the first year of the Work Programme.
Fewer job outcomes will mean lower spending per participant, and lower payments to contractors. There is a danger of a downward spiral of lower performance leading to lower spending, leading to even lower performance. Tightening finances will also increase the risk of ‘parking’ the most disadvantaged participants and will increase the financial pressures on specialist providers, such as voluntary organisations.
The first results are not likely to give a definitive answer about whether the Work Programme is on track or needs fixing. But they will likely illustrate that ‘payment by results’ can lead to lower spending when the jobs market gets weaker – and that contractors alone should not be blamed if performance expectations don’t respond to the ‘rough waters’2 of the economy.
==========================
1 See: www.dwp.gov.uk/publications/corporate-publications/dwp-business-plan-2011-2015/businessplan-transparency/people-moving-from-key-out-of-work/
2 Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, on economic prospects, August 2012
Full text (PDF 45pp)
Executive Summary
The release of the first Work Programme performance statistics on 27 November is an opportunity to review how successful the government has been in holding down long-term unemployment.
Long-term unemployment has more than doubled since 2008 and young people have been hit the hardest, with a 145% increase.
Long-term unemployment for those claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) has seen the largest increases – for all ages it is up 173% and for young people up 339%. This has been fuelled by claimants being switched to JSA from ‘inactive benefits’ – which have seen decreases in long-term claims.
Women have seen particularly sharp increases – a 173% increase in long-term unemployment, which includes a 289% increase in JSA long-term unemployment.
Being out of work for over a year has a significant impact on people’s confidence, finances and future earning power. Inclusion has argued that governments should focus on: preventing long-term unemployment and on helping those long-term unemployed to maximise their chances of getting and keeping employment.
Preventing long-term unemployment
Jobcentre Plus is the front line in preventing long-term unemployment. It is monitored by an ‘impact indicator’, which measures the number of new claimants that have stopped claiming within 12 months. The latest published figure shows that 87% of new claimants have left before 12 months, but this has worsened since 2010.
In comparison with the 1990s recession, Jobcentre Plus performance is considerably better. In 1991 one in four of all new claimants became long-term unemployed. Now it is one in six.
Performance has varied considerably since the start of the recession in 2008. Last autumn and winter, the speed at which people left JSA fell by between 15% and 25%. This is the same period that covers the first Work Programme performance results. This likely reflects both tough labour market conditions and the impact of significant changes in policy and programmes by the new government. However, since spring this year, off-flows have significantly improved – a sign that subsequent Work Programme results will also improve.
The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) recognises that the wider economy can affect Jobcentre Plus performance: ‘in a recession, even if Jobcentre Plus is performing well, the off-flow rate is likely to fall.’1 However, DWP does not currently recognise this for the Work Programme.
The Work Programme
The weaker than expected economy in 2011 means that DWP’s expectation for Work Programme performance in its first year is unrealistically high. We think a realistic benchmark for Work Programme performance in Year 1 is to reduce DWP’s minimum performance level (MPL) by 15%.
In the invitation to tender (ITT) for the financial year 2011–12 DWP originally set an MPL of 5.5% of all referrals achieving a job outcome in that same year. Because the programme started late, the first full operational year was June 2011 to May 2012 and the equivalent MPL is 6.1%.
However, this was set when the economy was forecast to grow. Instead we have had a double-dip recession. Inclusion has found a strong relationship between changes in gross domestic product and the rate at which unemployed people start jobs. We have used this to adjust the MPL so that it reflects the reality of the last year.
Our expectation is that tomorrow’s published results will be around 15% lower than planned – if they are above then contractors would have done well despite the recession. If they are below this, it will be an indication there have been deeper problems in the first year of the Work Programme.
Fewer job outcomes will mean lower spending per participant, and lower payments to contractors. There is a danger of a downward spiral of lower performance leading to lower spending, leading to even lower performance. Tightening finances will also increase the risk of ‘parking’ the most disadvantaged participants and will increase the financial pressures on specialist providers, such as voluntary organisations.
The first results are not likely to give a definitive answer about whether the Work Programme is on track or needs fixing. But they will likely illustrate that ‘payment by results’ can lead to lower spending when the jobs market gets weaker – and that contractors alone should not be blamed if performance expectations don’t respond to the ‘rough waters’2 of the economy.
==========================
1 See: www.dwp.gov.uk/publications/corporate-publications/dwp-business-plan-2011-2015/businessplan-transparency/people-moving-from-key-out-of-work/
2 Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, on economic prospects, August 2012
Full text (PDF 45pp)
Monday, 5 November 2012
Long-term Unemployment 2012
a European Employment Observatory Review
There is no abstract or summary for this document so I have decided that the best (i.e. easiest for me) way of bringing you an indication of the content is:
Table of contents
Hazel’s comment:
And if anyone can tell me how to code a nested list in HTML so that it shows as 1.1, 1.1.1 etc I will be grateful.
There is no abstract or summary for this document so I have decided that the best (i.e. easiest for me) way of bringing you an indication of the content is:
Table of contents
- Recent trends in long-term unemployment in Europe
- LTU trends in the EU in recent years
- EU policy developments connected with the reduction of LTU
- Incidence of LTU across different groups
- Impact of the crisis on LTU according to age and gender
- Impact of the crisis on LTU according to region of residence
- Impact of the crisis on LTU according to educational level
- Impact of the crisis on LTU according to immigrant or ethnic minority background and nationality
- Impact of the crisis on LTU according to job sectors/occupations
- Other factors affecting the risk of LTU 15
- Factors driving transitions into and out of LTU
- Beveridge curves and the relationship between vacancy and unemployment rates
- Structural causes of LTU
- Skills mismatches
- Geographical mismatches
- Tax and social welfare disincentives for reducing LTU
- High levels of employee protection
- Employers’ social security contributions, low wages, undeclared work
- The role of economic restructuring and its contribution to LTU
- Other factors contributing to the persistence of LTU
- Policies to prevent and tackle structural unemployment and LTU
- ALMPs
- Training measures
- Wage subsidies and employer contribution exemptions
- Job creation schemes: public works
- Prevention: early intervention approaches and profiling
- Problems identified with existing ALMPs or improvements needed
- Policies to reduce skills shortages or anticipate skill needs or re-skilling the long-term unemployed
- Unemployment benefit systems
- Other policies measures to reduce LTU
- Conclusions
Hazel’s comment:
And if anyone can tell me how to code a nested list in HTML so that it shows as 1.1, 1.1.1 etc I will be grateful.
Tuesday, 16 October 2012
Long-term youth unemployment is up by 23 per cent while government support is cut by 26 per cent
via ToUChstone blog: A public policy blog from the TUC by Anjum Klair
TUC analysis published today [15 October 2012] shows that long-term youth unemployment in England has increased by 23 per cent since the government came to power in May 2010.
The North West is the worst hit region with a 53 per cent increase (26,000 ) in the number of 16-24 year-olds out of work for six months or longer, followed by the East of England 40 per cent (11,309) and Yorkshire and the Humber 29 per cent (11,769). London is the only area to have witnessed a small fall.
The TUC research also shows that as long-term unemployment has rocketed government support for unemployed young people has fallen by 26 per cent following the replacement of the previous government's Youth Guarantee (which included the Future Jobs Fund) with the new Youth Contract.
Continue reading
TUC analysis published today [15 October 2012] shows that long-term youth unemployment in England has increased by 23 per cent since the government came to power in May 2010.
The North West is the worst hit region with a 53 per cent increase (26,000 ) in the number of 16-24 year-olds out of work for six months or longer, followed by the East of England 40 per cent (11,309) and Yorkshire and the Humber 29 per cent (11,769). London is the only area to have witnessed a small fall.
The TUC research also shows that as long-term unemployment has rocketed government support for unemployed young people has fallen by 26 per cent following the replacement of the previous government's Youth Guarantee (which included the Future Jobs Fund) with the new Youth Contract.
Continue reading
Monday, 13 August 2012
Britain's Got Talent: Unlocking the demand for skills
a paper by John Springford and Ian Mulheirn for the Social Market Foundation
Introductory paragraphs to the Executive Summary
Britain’s workforce desperately needs new skills. The country faces a sustained period of high unemployment, with workers’ skills decaying at a rapid rate. Even in the boom years, many people struggled to find a job, and many were employed in poorly paid, low-skilled occupations. But government skills spending does not translate directly into a more highly skilled workforce. The money must be invested well. This means investing in training that leads to jobs and pay rises, by giving people skills that are in demand. At the core of its long-term growth strategy, the government needs a plan to boost the nation’s stock of human capital in a cost-effective way, especially as it has less money to invest than before.
Unemployment is high. In the first quarter of 2012, 8.5% of the working-age population were unemployed.1 The continuing debt crisis in the euro zone may damage the UK economy further in 2012 and 2013, with several indicators pointing to renewed recession in the UK’s largest trading partner. This may push up unemployment still further. As the economy stagnates, the proportion of people who are long-term unemployed increases. The proportion of unemployed people who haven’t found work for a year or more rose from 25% to 32% between 2009 and 2011. The proportion out of work for two years or more rose from 10% to 16%.2
The government faces further difficult macro-economic policy decisions to get Britain growing and thus to reduce the unemployment rate. But a complementary policy for growth must be efficient investment in adult skills to make the labour force more productive. This would help to create a supply of labour that more closely matched the demands of employers. It would help the long-term unemployed, many of whom have struggled to find sustained work since the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, by guarding the skills they have from atrophy and giving them new ones. And it would make labour markets more efficient in the long term, helping people cope with an increasingly dynamic economy with a fast pace of sectoral boom and decline.
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1 Office for national statistics, Unemployment data, April 2012. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Unemployment+rates
2 ibid
Full text (PDF 102pp)
Introductory paragraphs to the Executive Summary
Britain’s workforce desperately needs new skills. The country faces a sustained period of high unemployment, with workers’ skills decaying at a rapid rate. Even in the boom years, many people struggled to find a job, and many were employed in poorly paid, low-skilled occupations. But government skills spending does not translate directly into a more highly skilled workforce. The money must be invested well. This means investing in training that leads to jobs and pay rises, by giving people skills that are in demand. At the core of its long-term growth strategy, the government needs a plan to boost the nation’s stock of human capital in a cost-effective way, especially as it has less money to invest than before.
Unemployment is high. In the first quarter of 2012, 8.5% of the working-age population were unemployed.1 The continuing debt crisis in the euro zone may damage the UK economy further in 2012 and 2013, with several indicators pointing to renewed recession in the UK’s largest trading partner. This may push up unemployment still further. As the economy stagnates, the proportion of people who are long-term unemployed increases. The proportion of unemployed people who haven’t found work for a year or more rose from 25% to 32% between 2009 and 2011. The proportion out of work for two years or more rose from 10% to 16%.2
The government faces further difficult macro-economic policy decisions to get Britain growing and thus to reduce the unemployment rate. But a complementary policy for growth must be efficient investment in adult skills to make the labour force more productive. This would help to create a supply of labour that more closely matched the demands of employers. It would help the long-term unemployed, many of whom have struggled to find sustained work since the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, by guarding the skills they have from atrophy and giving them new ones. And it would make labour markets more efficient in the long term, helping people cope with an increasingly dynamic economy with a fast pace of sectoral boom and decline.
_____________
1 Office for national statistics, Unemployment data, April 2012. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Unemployment+rates
2 ibid
Full text (PDF 102pp)
Wednesday, 23 November 2011
5 Borough Single Point of Access case study
A linked, comprehensive and accessible employment support service across five London Boroughs
5 Borough Single Point of Access project is centred on the need to engage people who traditionally have poor or low levels of engagement with the existing welfare to work or Jobcentre Plus (JCP) support. The programme is delivered in Greenwich, Hackney, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Waltham Forest, with a special focus on long term workless parents who face multiple barriers to the labour market and who are not readily engaged with existing mainstream welfare to work support.
This case study (PDF 7pp) was published in September 2011 when I failed to notice it. I hope that late is better than never for reading about this innovative approach to long-term unemployment.
5 Borough Single Point of Access project is centred on the need to engage people who traditionally have poor or low levels of engagement with the existing welfare to work or Jobcentre Plus (JCP) support. The programme is delivered in Greenwich, Hackney, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Waltham Forest, with a special focus on long term workless parents who face multiple barriers to the labour market and who are not readily engaged with existing mainstream welfare to work support.
This case study (PDF 7pp) was published in September 2011 when I failed to notice it. I hope that late is better than never for reading about this innovative approach to long-term unemployment.
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