an article by Ludi Simpson (University of Manchester, UK) published in Local Economy: The Journal of the Local Economy Policy Unit Volume 32 Issue 2 (March 2017)
Abstract
Labour force forecasts are required by local planning, legally guided in the UK by regulations on land use. Methods of forecasting the labour force, and data available for UK practice, are reviewed here.
A best strategy for sub-national forecasts of the labour supply is found empirically to involve an accurate national forecast with a local starting point. Key trends are the decreasing economic activity of young adults, the increasing activity of older adults and the impact of changing state pension age.
However, there exists neither an acceptable national forecast of economic activity nor a standard approach to local forecasts. Software for implementation of sub-national forecasts is described, and six types of scenarios are listed to aid local planning, which reflect uncertainty about current trends and the impact of changes in policy.
Research and development of forecasting the national and the local labour force is urgently needed.
Showing posts with label forecasting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forecasting. Show all posts
Monday, 27 March 2017
Wednesday, 14 November 2012
Skills supply and demand in Europe: methodological framework
a research publication (No. 25) from cedefop (European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training)
Summary
This publication provides an overview of the methodology underpinning the Cedefop skills supply and demand forecast. The aim is to share the knowledge acquired during the development of the different systems, modules and models and to highlight the results, which have already aroused considerable interest.
The structure and robustness of the methods used increases the clarity and reliability of the results.
Cedefop’s forecast is not intended to replace forecasting efforts in individual countries. However, sharing the knowledge and experience from the European level can help to improve the methods used in those countries and to resolve issues that may be faced there.
At the same time, Cedefop’s forecast can inspire new forecasting initiatives and initiate further discussion. The feedback received can help to improve Cedefop’s methods and make the European forecast even more precise and reliable.
Available in English only (PDF 146pp)
Summary
This publication provides an overview of the methodology underpinning the Cedefop skills supply and demand forecast. The aim is to share the knowledge acquired during the development of the different systems, modules and models and to highlight the results, which have already aroused considerable interest.
The structure and robustness of the methods used increases the clarity and reliability of the results.
Cedefop’s forecast is not intended to replace forecasting efforts in individual countries. However, sharing the knowledge and experience from the European level can help to improve the methods used in those countries and to resolve issues that may be faced there.
At the same time, Cedefop’s forecast can inspire new forecasting initiatives and initiate further discussion. The feedback received can help to improve Cedefop’s methods and make the European forecast even more precise and reliable.
Available in English only (PDF 146pp)
Monday, 8 October 2012
Where Do We Go from Here? The Future of English Higher Education
an article by Jeroen Huisman and Paulo Charles Pimentel Bótas (University of Bath, UK) and Harry de Boer (University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands) published in Higher Education Quarterly Volume 66 Issue 4 (October 2012)
Abstract
A Delphi study has been carried out, soliciting views from higher education experts on likely and desirable developments in English higher education until 2025.
The paper reports the most salient findings of the Delphi questionnaire and presents two scenarios that focus largely on the institutional fabric of the system.
The first scenario follows the general agreement emerging from the two rounds of the Delphi study and suggests a smaller higher education system and the return of a binary divide between about 25 research-intensive universities and about 70 other higher education institutions.
The second scenario is a counter-scenario that intends to present an alternative picture of English higher education in 2025. That scenario suggests a compact system of six research-intensive universities, about 40 comprehensive institutions and five private providers.
With respect to the steering of the system, a key difference between the two scenarios is that the former assumes a continuing role of market forces, whereas the latter is based on a much stronger role of the government.
Hazel’s comment:
For those of you unsure about Delphi there is a useful explanation of the process in Wikipedia.
Abstract
A Delphi study has been carried out, soliciting views from higher education experts on likely and desirable developments in English higher education until 2025.
The paper reports the most salient findings of the Delphi questionnaire and presents two scenarios that focus largely on the institutional fabric of the system.
The first scenario follows the general agreement emerging from the two rounds of the Delphi study and suggests a smaller higher education system and the return of a binary divide between about 25 research-intensive universities and about 70 other higher education institutions.
The second scenario is a counter-scenario that intends to present an alternative picture of English higher education in 2025. That scenario suggests a compact system of six research-intensive universities, about 40 comprehensive institutions and five private providers.
With respect to the steering of the system, a key difference between the two scenarios is that the former assumes a continuing role of market forces, whereas the latter is based on a much stronger role of the government.
Hazel’s comment:
For those of you unsure about Delphi there is a useful explanation of the process in Wikipedia.
Thursday, 9 February 2012
After “Watson”
an article by Tom Abeles (Editor) published in On the Horizon Volume 20 Issue 1 (2012)
Abstract
Purpose
This essay aims to explore the changes that will occur in both the natural and social sciences in general and education in particular with the advent of the cloud, fast computers and sophisticated data analysis software coupled with artificial intelligence.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper looks at literature, particularly science fiction, and recent developments in technology.
Findings
With massive data and analytical capabilities existing, ubiquitously in the “cloud” coupled with low cost access via smart phones, tablets and similar technologies, the cost of knowledge acquisition will asymptotically approach zero and the movement of knowledge across geo-political boundaries will profoundly affect all across the planet.
Originality/value
The paper reveals that the potential of the levelling of knowledge will change the relationships between the developed and developing countries.
Abstract
Purpose
This essay aims to explore the changes that will occur in both the natural and social sciences in general and education in particular with the advent of the cloud, fast computers and sophisticated data analysis software coupled with artificial intelligence.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper looks at literature, particularly science fiction, and recent developments in technology.
Findings
With massive data and analytical capabilities existing, ubiquitously in the “cloud” coupled with low cost access via smart phones, tablets and similar technologies, the cost of knowledge acquisition will asymptotically approach zero and the movement of knowledge across geo-political boundaries will profoundly affect all across the planet.
Originality/value
The paper reveals that the potential of the levelling of knowledge will change the relationships between the developed and developing countries.
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