Monday, 30 October 2017

10 ways we can reverse inequality in Britain

a Policy Press blog post (14 September 2017) by Roger Brown, author of The inequality crisis, who explains how economic inequality in Britain and other advanced Western countries has got so bad, and highlights the measures we need to undertake that will start to reverse this devastating trend.

Almost every day now the media carries stories about inequality and its effects.

In the past few weeks, the Department for Health has confirmed that the health gap between rich and poor in England is growing.

Reports by Lloyds Bank and the Social Market Foundation have drawn attention to our disparities in wealth, with a tenth of adults owning half of the country’s wealth while 15% own nothing or have negative wealth.

Respected independent ‘thinktanks’ like the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Resolution Foundation have repeated their warnings that, at a time when wages generally are only growing slowly, the combination of tax cuts and cuts in welfare benefits means that income inequality will increase further over the next few years.

“Economic inequality has increased in nearly every advanced Western country…”

This is not just an English or British issue. In March, International Monetary Fund (IMF) researchers estimated that the US economy had lost a year of consumption growth because of increased income polarisation. And of course inequality was a major factor in the Brexit vote and in the election of President Trump.

My interest in the subject was first aroused by my work on the introduction of markets into higher education. I found that the associated increase in competition through mechanisms like tuition fees had exacerbated the inequalities between universities and the constituencies they serve, without any significant compensating benefits. This led me to wonder if there might be parallels in the economy and society more generally.

What I established was that economic inequality has increased in nearly every advanced Western country over the past thirty or so years, and that this has led to a huge range of costs and detriments. Moreover, these costs and detriments are not only social. As the IMF research confirms, increased economic inequality has an economic cost as well. Above all, growing inequality is disabling democratic politics as the concentration of economic power is increasingly reflected in a concentration of political power (as can be seen most clearly in the US).

“Growing inequality is disabling democratic politics…”

But whilst nearly everyone agrees that – to paraphrase Dunning’s famous 1780 Parliamentary motion, economic inequality has increased, is increasing, and ought to be reduced – there is no agreement on how this should be done.

Broadly speaking, there are two schools of thought:

One – the ‘market’ view – is that increased inequality is the inevitable outcome of underlying structural developments such as globalisation, skill-biased technological change, and financialisation (the growing economic role of such processes as banking and securities trading) over which individual countries and governments have little control. These changes are leading to what have been termed ‘winner-take-all’ markets where those at the top gain rewards out of all proportion to their contribution to society.

The alternative, ‘institutional’, theory is that it is due to the political choices made in individual countries, and especially the neoliberal policies of deregulation, privatisation, tax reductions, welfare cutbacks and deflation pursued in most Western countries since the mid- to late-70s, but particularly associated with Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.

I believe that it is the combination of these underlying structural developments with those neoliberal policies that has driven the post-80s rise in inequality, with the US and Britain well above the other wealthy Western countries in the extent to which inequality has grown there over that period.

So the key to reversing, halting or slowing inequality lies in the first place in reversing these neoliberal policies, but without losing the benefits of properly regulated market competition in sectors where it is appropriate.

The following is a short list of measures that would start to reverse inequality in Britain:

  1. Require the potential impact on inequality to be a major test of every other policy or programme introduced by the Government.
  2. Show that we are serious about tax avoidance by reversing the long-term decline in the number of professional HMRC officials.
  3. Progressively adjust the balance between direct and indirect taxation (VAT), increasing the former and reducing the latter.
  4. Increase the income tax rates for higher earners (say, above £60,000).
  5. Introduce some form of wealth tax.
  6. Begin the rehabilitation of the trade unions by repealing most of the 2016 Trade Union Act.
  7. Reverse the cuts in welfare benefits made by the Coalition and Cameron Governments.
  8. Introduce measures that really will force companies to take account of interests wider than those of top management.
  9. Begin to end segregation in education by removing the charitable status of the private schools.
  10. Focus macroeconomic policy on demand and wage growth rather than inflation and corporate profits.
The Labour election manifesto has some proposals on these lines, but no political party has yet really got its mind round the full range of measures that are needed to combat inequality.

Until they do, inequality will continue to increase.

So says Mr Brown who is, obviously, speaking from a specific political viewpoint with which you may not agree. However, I hope that we can agree than widening inequality between those who have and those who have not can, and, in many instances, does, lead to disruption and violence. H

Human Legacies When Robots Rule the Earth

Machines have been displacing humans on job tasks for several centuries, and for seventy years many of these machines have been controlled by computers.

an article by Robin Hanson published in MIT Technology Review

While the raw abilities of these computers have improved at an exponential rate over many orders of magnitude, the rate at which human jobs have been displaced has remained modest and relatively constant. This is reasonably because human jobs vary enormously in the computing power required to do those jobs adequately. This suggests that the rate of future job displacement may remain mild and relatively constant even if computing power continues to improve exponentially over a great many more orders of magnitude.

Even if it takes many centuries, however, eventually robots may plausibly do pretty much all the jobs that need doing. A future world dominated by robots could in principle evolve gradually from a world dominated by humans. The basic nature, divisions, and distributions of cities, nations, industries, professions, and firms need not change greatly as machines slowly displace humans on jobs. That is, machines might fit into the social slots that humans had previously occupied.

However, there could also be much larger changes in the organization of a robot society if, as seems plausible, machines are different enough from humans in their relative costs or productivity so as to make substantially different arrangements more efficient.

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‘Going viral’ and ‘Going country’: the expressive and instrumental activities of street gangs on social media

Michelle L. Storrod (Rutgers University-Camden, USA) and James A. Densley (Metropolitan State University, Saint Paul, USA) published in Journal of Youth Studies Volume 20 Issue 6 (2017)

Abstract

Based on social media content analysis and focus groups with young people, the current study explores expressive and instrumental uses of the internet among street gangs.

‘Trap rap’ videos posted on YouTube and orientated around life as a drug dealer are identified as the ultimate cultural artefact for denoting London, UK, gang culture. These videos serve an expressive purpose in terms of reputation building, but also shed light on the instrumental business of gangs – specifically, illicit drugs sales via ‘country lines’.

Looking beyond the artefact toward how these videos are created, disseminated, and consumed, reveals the instrumental organisation of gangs and how social rules and behaviours within them are monitored and enforced.

The current study thus contributes to gang research from the UK, and the growing body of literature on gang and gang member use of the Internet, with implications for research and practice.


323 years of UK national debt

a column by Martin Ellison and Andrew Scott for VOX: CEPR's Policy Portal

A new dataset for the market value of British government debt makes a long-run analysis of fiscal sustainability and debt management possible. It shows that the 20th century saw a shift to financing debt by inflation and low bondholder returns, rather than through fiscal surpluses. This column uses a counterfactual analysis to show that long bonds have been an expensive way of financing debt, especially after a financial crisis. Had the government issued only three-year bonds since 1914, the level of debt in 2017 would have been lower by 28% of GDP.

Continue reading

I must say that despite being professors of this and that (mainly, of course, economics) the writers for VOX manage to make their subjects understandable (sort of).


Sanctions and the exit from unemployment in two different benefit schemes

an article by Henna Busk (Pellervo Economic Research PTT, Helsinki, Finland and University of Jyväskylä, Finland) published in Labour Economics Volume 42 (October 2016)

Highlights
  • We examine the effect of benefit sanctions on the exit rate from unemployment using the timing-of-events approach.
  • The effect of sanctions differs according to the benefits received.
  • Sanctions increase the exit rate from unemployment to work among flat-rate labour market support receivers.
  • Sanctions increase the exit rate from unemployment to outside the labour force among earnings-related benefit receivers.
Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of benefit sanctions on the exit rate from unemployment using a unique set of rich register data on unemployed Finnish individuals.

The timing-of-events approach is applied to distinguish between the selection and causal effects of sanctioning.

The results imply that the effect of sanctions differs according to the benefits received. Sanctions encourage unemployed individuals receiving flat-rate labour market support (LMS) to find jobs, whereas unemployed individuals receiving earnings-related (UI) allowances to leave the labour force.

The encouraging effect of sanctions on active labour market policy programmes is relatively small and statistically significant only among LMS recipients.

JEL classification: C41, J64,J65


Sunday, 29 October 2017

10 for today: Tigger via maths and sand modelling to Thomas De Quincey

This real-life Tigger is the most ancient type of cat alive today
via Boing Boing by Caroline Siede
The clouded leopard isn’t just uber-adorable, its genetic blueprint is shared by all modern-day cats.

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Spiders appear to offload cognitive tasks to their webs, making them one of a number of species with a mind that isn’t fully confined within the head
via 3 Quarks Daily: Joshua Sokol in Quanta
Millions of years ago, a few spiders abandoned the kind of round webs that the word “spiderweb” calls to mind and started to focus on a new strategy. Before, they would wait for prey to become ensnared in their webs and then walk out to retrieve it. Then they began building horizontal nets to use as a fishing platform. Now their modern descendants, the cobweb spiders, dangle sticky threads below, wait until insects walk by and get snagged, and reel their unlucky victims in.
Continue reading but be aware that the Quanta article starts with a rather large image (not of a real arachnid but could still frighten some people) 

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The illegitimate open-mindedness of arithmetic
via OUP Blog by Roy T Cook

Formula mathematics blackboard. Public Domain via Pixabay.
We are often told that we should be open-minded. In other words, we should be open to the idea that even our most cherished, most certain, most secure, most well-justified beliefs might be wrong. But this is, in one sense, puzzling. After all, aren’t those beliefs that we hold most dearly – those that we feel are best supported – exactly the one’s we should not feel are open to doubt? If we found ourselves able to doubt those beliefs – that is, if we are able to be open-minded about them – then they aren’t all that cherished, certain, secure, or well-justified after all!
Continue reading

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Seven Brief Lessons in Physics: a thing of beauty is a joy forever
via Boing Boing by Ferdinando Buscema

Now and then I stumble upon a book that completely blows my mind. The latest of such lucky encounters has been with Seven Brief Lessons in Physics by Carlo Rovelli.
Carlo Rovelli is an Italian theoretical physicist with a solid, international academic career, presently teaching at the University of Aix-Marseille in France. In 2013 he was among the sophisticated minds who were asked the famous Edge.com annual question. The question that year was “What *should* we be worried about?” His reply: “I worry that free imagination is overvalued, and I think this carries risks.”
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Celluloid Dreams: are film scores the next area of serious musical scholarship?
via the New Statesman by Caroline Crampton
When John Wilson walks out on to the stage at the Royal Albert Hall in London, there is a roar from the audience that would be more fitting in a football stadium. Before he even steps on to the conductor’s podium, people whistle and cheer, thumping and clapping. The members of his orchestra grin as he turns to acknowledge the applause. Many soloists reaching the end of a triumphant concerto performance receive less ecstatic praise. Even if you had never heard of Wilson before, the rock-star reception would tip you off that you were about to hear something special.
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Ottonian queenship: powerful women in early medieval Germany
via OUP Blog by Simon Maclean

Genealogy of the Ottonians, Chronica St Pantaleonis. Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons.
In 2008, archaeologists working on the cathedral at Magdeburg, in eastern Germany, opened an ancient tomb and rediscovered the bones of an Anglo-Saxon princess called Edith. She had died in the year 946, aged only about 30. Her remains were brought across the North Sea for scientific tests which verified the identification via tests on her tooth enamel, indicating that the bones belonged to someone who had grown up drinking water from the chalky landscapes of southern Britain. This Edith was none other than the granddaughter of Alfred the Great (871–99), the king of Wessex who had defeated the Vikings and laid the foundations for his successors to create by conquest the first kingdom of the English. The find was therefore celebrated in the British media as a window onto this legendary moment of English state formation.
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What if every human ever born came back to life today?
via Boing Boing by Caroline Siede
The YouTube channel RealLifeLore uses the unusual thought experiment, “What if every human ever born came back to life today?” as a springboard for examining world populations, historical life expectancy, and much, much more.
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The Battle of Lincoln
via The National Archives blog by Dr Jessica Nelson
The Battle of Lincoln – one of the most critical battles in medieval history – was fought on Saturday 20 May 1217, 800 years ago. Forces loyal to the English king Henry III fought those supporting his great rival Louis of France, the son of the French king.
You might assume that the English would naturally be on the side of the English king against a French invader, but in fact a great number of the English barons supported Louis. To understand this, we must go back to the reign of Henry III’s father, King John.
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The trick to great sand sculpting is the right sand glue
via Boing Boing by Andrea James

In the world of professional sand sculptors, Toshihiko Hosaka is known for his large commissioned works (like this commissioned Colossal Titan from Shingeki no Kyojin) and for creating an environmentally friendly sand glue.
Continue to video and a link to further images

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A Life of Thomas De Quincey
via 3 Quarks Daily: Nicholas Spice at the London Review of Books
De Quincey’s size mattered to him. He was uncommonly small. But he was also uncommonly clever, and his ambitions were large. As a young man, he idolised Wordsworth and Coleridge, and then sought them out and tried to make them his friends. For a while they all got on, but then increasingly they didn’t. Wordsworth was in the habit of condescending to De Quincey, but Wordsworth condescended to most people and anyway condescending to De Quincey was hard to resist: ‘He is a remarkable and very interesting young man,’ Dorothy Wordsworth wrote, ‘very diminutive in person, which, to strangers, makes him appear insignificant; and so modest, and so very shy.’ ‘Little Mr De Quincey is at Grasmere … I wish he were not so little, and I wish he wouldn’t leave his greatcoat always behind him on the road. But he is a very able man, with a head brimful of information,’ Southey wrote. As relations soured, the belittlements grew sardonic: for Wordsworth, De Quincey was ‘a little friend of ours’; for Lamb, ‘the animalcule’; Dorothy and Mary Wordsworth took to calling him Peter Quince. Even his friends tended to diminish him: ‘Poor little fellow!’ Carlyle exclaimed to his wife, Jane, who mused: ‘What would one give to have him in a box, and take him out to talk.’

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Why media companies insist they’re not media companies, why they're wrong, and why it matters

an article by Philip Napoli (Duke University, Durham, USA) and Robyn Caplan (Data & Society Research Institute, New York, USA published in First Monday Volume 22 Number 5 (May 2017)

Abstract

A common position amongst social media platforms and online content aggregators is their resistance to being characterized as media companies. Rather, companies such as Google, Facebook, and Twitter have regularly insisted that they should be thought of purely as technology companies.

This paper critiques the position that these platforms are technology companies rather than media companies, explores the underlying rationales, and considers the political, legal, and policy implications associated with accepting or rejecting this position.

As this paper illustrates, this is no mere semantic distinction, given the history of the precise classification of communications technologies and services having profound ramifications for how these technologies and services are considered by policy-makers and the courts

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