Climate projections and downscaling techniques: a discussion for impact studies in urban systems

an article by Marek Smid and Ana Cristina Costa (Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal) published in International Journal of Urban Sciences Volume 22 Issue 3 (2018)

Abstract

Urban systems are not only major drivers of climate change but also the impact hotspots. In the context of the planet currently undergoing a process of greenhouse warming, and simultaneously predominantly urban based ever continuing population growth, our agglomerations became vulnerable to chain reactions triggered by climate related hazards.

Hence, the reliable and cost-effective assessment of future impact is of high importance. While the climate community has invested significant effort to provide downscaling techniques yielding localized information on future climate extreme behaviours, these methods do not remain widely exploited in the process of urban planning.

In this work, we discuss the underlying reasons and main challenges of the applicability of downscaling procedures in the real process of urban planning.

This paper attempts to help bridge the gap between the communities of urban planners and climatology.

In the beginning, we summarize the rationale for such cooperation, supporting the argument that the scale represents an important linkage between urbanistic and climate science in the process of designing an urban space.

Secondly, we introduce the main families of downscaling techniques and their application on climate projections, also providing the references to profound studies in the field.

Thirdly, special attention is given to previous works focused on the utilization of downscaled ensembles of climate simulations in urban agglomerations.

Finally, we identify three major challenges of the wider utilization of climate projections and downscaling techniques, namely: (i) the scale mismatch between data needs and data availability, (ii) the terminology, and (iii) the IT bottleneck. The practical implications of these issues are discussed in the context of urban studies.

Full text (PDF 32pp)

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DWP: Impact assessment on social security benefits uprating order 2013

What is the problem under consideration?

Why is government intervention necessary?

Welfare expenditure is a significant driver of public spending, and the Government has made a commitment to deliver a more sustainable welfare system. In the Autumn Statement (2012), it was announced that in light of the national economic situation, certain working-age social security benefits and payments, certain elements of tax credits, and Child Benefit, would be up-rated by 1 per cent rather than by prices (as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (‘CPI’)) for the tax years 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2015/16.

The Social Security Benefits Uprating Order effects the policy for some of these benefits in 2013/14 only

• The main working-age rates of Income Support, Jobseeker’s Allowance, Employment and Support Allowance and Housing Benefit; the work-related activity group component of Employment and Support Allowance;
• Statutory Sick Pay and standard rate elements of, Statutory Maternity Pay, Statutory Paternity Pay, Statutory Adoption Pay; and Maternity Allowance.

Furthermore, there are some changes to Pension Credit and Savings Credit compared to the expected baseline.

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