a column by Daniel Treisman for VOX: CEPR’s policy portal
Most research on the transition to democracy tries to explain why autocrats choose to democratise. Based on two centuries of data on democratisation, this column argues, however, that autocratic rulers overwhelmingly create democracies by mistake. Taking these mistakes into account during analysis may improve the predictive or explanatory power of existing models.
Continue reading but be warned. If you have any interest in politics then you will not only be reading this item through to the bottom but also picking up on on some of the linked references. A time waster but … H.
Showing posts with label behavioural_economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label behavioural_economics. Show all posts
Tuesday, 26 December 2017
Monday, 25 June 2012
Test, Learn, Adapt
Michael Sanders writing in the CMPO blog
If there is a phrase more likely to attract rolled eyes than “Behavioural Economics it is probably “Evidence based policy” – one has in the past been derided for not really being economics, and the other for being more apt with the first and third words reversed. Supporters of both have often despaired. There is now, however, a glimmer of hope.
The Cabinet Office’s Behavioural Insights Team, charged by the coalition with bringing behavioural science to policy-making, this week launched a paper with the title Test, Learn Adapt: Developing Public Policy with Randomised Controlled Trials, which is part manifesto for randomised controlled trials (RCT), and half handbook on how to conduct them. Although not comprehensive, its nine steps offer a simple guide to the basics of designing and running a trial.
Read the blog post in full here and get links to many appropriate documents as well.
Having sat on both sides of the policy-evidence fence I am, 20+ years after leaving the civil service, astounded that policy is still being made based on the whim of a politician, or group of them, with the evidence being sought after the event.
If there is a phrase more likely to attract rolled eyes than “Behavioural Economics it is probably “Evidence based policy” – one has in the past been derided for not really being economics, and the other for being more apt with the first and third words reversed. Supporters of both have often despaired. There is now, however, a glimmer of hope.
The Cabinet Office’s Behavioural Insights Team, charged by the coalition with bringing behavioural science to policy-making, this week launched a paper with the title Test, Learn Adapt: Developing Public Policy with Randomised Controlled Trials, which is part manifesto for randomised controlled trials (RCT), and half handbook on how to conduct them. Although not comprehensive, its nine steps offer a simple guide to the basics of designing and running a trial.
Read the blog post in full here and get links to many appropriate documents as well.
Having sat on both sides of the policy-evidence fence I am, 20+ years after leaving the civil service, astounded that policy is still being made based on the whim of a politician, or group of them, with the evidence being sought after the event.
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