Showing posts with label statistical_literacy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistical_literacy. Show all posts

Wednesday, 16 January 2019

Big Data's "theory-free" analysis is a statistical malpractice

a post by Cory Doctorow for the Boing Boing blog



One of the premises of Big Data is that it can be "theory free": rather than starting with a hypothesis ("men at buffets eat more when women are present," "more people will click this button if I move it here," etc) and then gathering data to validate your guess, you just gather a ton of data and look for patterns in it.

The thing is, patterns emerge in every large dataset, without necessarily being representative of a wider statistical truth. Think of the celebrated rise and fall of Google Flu: researchers examined the 45 search terms that were most prevalent where the flu had spread and concluded that these were predictors of flu, but the predictive power turned out to be an illusion. Every place has 45 top search terms, all the time, and some of them will coincide with flu outbreaks, but without a causal theory that you can test, all you know for sure is that you've found an incident of correlation, and no way to know whether the correlation is coincidence or a newly discovered iron law.

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I have only thought to add. “Eight out of ten cats …”.


Friday, 25 August 2017

Statistics literacy

a blog post by Sheila Webber

A short article on the Royal Statistical Society's Statslife site by Hetan Shah (RSS Executive Ditector) a few days ago asserts that: Critical thinking and stats literacy are the answers to a post-truth age. It finishes by saying that “We should explore new ways of promoting critical thinking, statistical literacy and a curious mindset among people young and old. As is so often the case, technical and policy fixes can only take us so far; education is the only sustainable answer to this major societal issue.”

Shah, H. (2017, May 17). Critical thinking and stats literacy are the answers to a post-truth age
https://www.statslife.org.uk/features/3460-critical-thinking-stats-literacy-are-the-answers-to-a-post-truth-age

The RSS site is worth exploring further, especially the Resources section, where the section “for journalists” could be equally useful for students: it includes exercises, presentations etc.
https://www.statslife.org.uk/

Hazel’s comment:
And, of course, the RSS site is also useful for anyone who wants to learn even a little about how statistics can be manipulated.
Remember the Whiskas advert? 8 out of 10 cats prefer Whiskas?
WRONG 8 out of 10 cat owners who thought their cats preferred a specific food said that their animals preferred Whiskas. Not the same thing at all.