an article by Vassilis Monastiriotis and Nikolitsa Lampropoulou (European Institute, London School of Economics, UK) and Corrado Macchiarelli1 (Brunel University London, UK; European Institute, London School of Economics, UK) published in Comparative Economic Studies Volume 61 Issue 2 (June 2019)
Abstract
The crisis has resulted in a substantial rise in unemployment in Europe and a notable divergence in unemployment rates and labour market outcomes post-crisis. In this paper, we offer a detailed examination of the transitional dynamics underpinning changes in employment, unemployment and inactivity across the EU member states during the long period from before the crisis until the recent recovery (2004–2016).
We document substantial differences in transitional dynamics across countries and disparate shifts in these over time.
We also find systematic cross-country differences in the medium- and long-run trajectories of employment and unemployment generated by these dynamics, which can broadly be associated with differences in labour market institutions and models of labour market regulation and industrial relations (varieties of capitalism or production regimes). Applying a counterfactual analysis, we further document how altering the dynamics of labour market transitions may contribute to reducing significantly the levels of unemployment, and cross-country disparities in these, across the EU.
JEL Classification: O52, J62, J88, P51, G01,
Showing posts with label labour_market_transitions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label labour_market_transitions. Show all posts
Thursday, 18 July 2019
Friday, 19 October 2018
First fired, first hired? Business cycles and immigrant labor market transitions
an article by Huanan Xu (Indiana University, South Bend, USA) published in IZA Journal of Development and Migration Volume 8 Article 19 (2018)
Abstract
Using individual-level Current Population Survey (CPS) data matched across adjacent months from 1996 to 2013, this paper examines immigrant-native differentials in labor market transitions to changes in the business cycle.
The paper captures economic fluctuations by measuring deviations in local demand from national economic circumstances and examines monthly transitions among employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation.
Immigrants are found to be first fired and first hired over the business cycle, and the aggregate unemployment gap is caused by immigrants’ higher rates in the unemployment entry flow. Although to some extent the gap can be explained by variation in the immigrant-native’s exposure to cycles across industry and occupation, the first fired and first hired pattern still holds.
Tests for heterogeneity show that low-skilled immigrants are more vulnerable to the business cycle. Tests of the structural changes from the 2007–2009 Great Recession show that since its start, there was a secular shift in the transition probabilities that would affect all workers negatively, but cyclical volatility was mitigated for immigrants in the post-Great Recession period.
JEL Classification: J15, J21, J23, J61, J63, J64
Full text (PDF 35pp)
Abstract
Using individual-level Current Population Survey (CPS) data matched across adjacent months from 1996 to 2013, this paper examines immigrant-native differentials in labor market transitions to changes in the business cycle.
The paper captures economic fluctuations by measuring deviations in local demand from national economic circumstances and examines monthly transitions among employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation.
Immigrants are found to be first fired and first hired over the business cycle, and the aggregate unemployment gap is caused by immigrants’ higher rates in the unemployment entry flow. Although to some extent the gap can be explained by variation in the immigrant-native’s exposure to cycles across industry and occupation, the first fired and first hired pattern still holds.
Tests for heterogeneity show that low-skilled immigrants are more vulnerable to the business cycle. Tests of the structural changes from the 2007–2009 Great Recession show that since its start, there was a secular shift in the transition probabilities that would affect all workers negatively, but cyclical volatility was mitigated for immigrants in the post-Great Recession period.
JEL Classification: J15, J21, J23, J61, J63, J64
Full text (PDF 35pp)
Monday, 11 February 2013
Bridges or Traps? Casualisation and Labour Market Transitions in Australia
an article by Ian Watson (Macquarie University, Australia) published inThe Journal of Industrial Relations Volume 55 Number 1 (February 2013)
Abstract
In this article, I re-examine the familiar debate on whether casual jobs represent a ‘bridge’ into permanent employment or a ‘trap’ that keeps workers locked into ongoing casualised work or joblessness.
My analysis looks at the labour market destinations of casual workers over time, making use of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey data for the period 2001 to 2009.
The novelty of my approach is twofold.
First, I examine an extensive range of individual, locality and job characteristics to assess which of these are most strongly associated with various labour market destinations.
Second, I conduct the analysis using longitudinal panel data, in which I make use of random intercepts multinomial logit panel models to estimate various conditional predicted probabilities for these destinations.
The findings show that as far as individual characteristics are concerned, age and years in paid employment matter a great deal, while education matters much less. Increasing age leads to worse outcomes, more years in paid employment lead to better outcomes, and increased levels of educational qualification have only a modest link to better outcomes.
In regard to locality, the more disadvantaged the area, the more likely that casual jobs will persist, transitions to permanent jobs will diminish and transitions to joblessness will increase.
In regard to the jobs themselves, casualisation persists in those industries where casual density is high, where organisations are small, where the work is part-time and where skills development is limited. These findings suggest that systemic influences count for a great deal, while human capital elements count for much less.
I conclude that the very nature of casual jobs is itself responsible for perpetuating casualised employment.
Abstract
In this article, I re-examine the familiar debate on whether casual jobs represent a ‘bridge’ into permanent employment or a ‘trap’ that keeps workers locked into ongoing casualised work or joblessness.
My analysis looks at the labour market destinations of casual workers over time, making use of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey data for the period 2001 to 2009.
The novelty of my approach is twofold.
First, I examine an extensive range of individual, locality and job characteristics to assess which of these are most strongly associated with various labour market destinations.
Second, I conduct the analysis using longitudinal panel data, in which I make use of random intercepts multinomial logit panel models to estimate various conditional predicted probabilities for these destinations.
The findings show that as far as individual characteristics are concerned, age and years in paid employment matter a great deal, while education matters much less. Increasing age leads to worse outcomes, more years in paid employment lead to better outcomes, and increased levels of educational qualification have only a modest link to better outcomes.
In regard to locality, the more disadvantaged the area, the more likely that casual jobs will persist, transitions to permanent jobs will diminish and transitions to joblessness will increase.
In regard to the jobs themselves, casualisation persists in those industries where casual density is high, where organisations are small, where the work is part-time and where skills development is limited. These findings suggest that systemic influences count for a great deal, while human capital elements count for much less.
I conclude that the very nature of casual jobs is itself responsible for perpetuating casualised employment.
Tuesday, 14 August 2012
'Back on the brew [benefits] again': why so many transitions from welfare into work are not sustained
an article by David McCollum (affiliation(s) not provided) published in Journal of Poverty and Social Justice Volume 20 Number 2 (June 2012)
Abstract
Employment policies have conventionally focused on the transition from welfare to work. However, many of those who leave out-of-work benefits for employment return to them again relatively quickly, meaning that some people cycle between work and welfare for much of their working lives.
This article draws on 130 semi-structured interviews with work-welfare “cyclers”, service providers and employers in Glasgow and Dundee, Scotland, to investigate the causes of these detrimental transitions.
An argument is developed which contends that “bad” attitudes to paid work and “bad” types of such work to varying degrees lie behind this form of labour market disadvantage.
Abstract
Employment policies have conventionally focused on the transition from welfare to work. However, many of those who leave out-of-work benefits for employment return to them again relatively quickly, meaning that some people cycle between work and welfare for much of their working lives.
This article draws on 130 semi-structured interviews with work-welfare “cyclers”, service providers and employers in Glasgow and Dundee, Scotland, to investigate the causes of these detrimental transitions.
An argument is developed which contends that “bad” attitudes to paid work and “bad” types of such work to varying degrees lie behind this form of labour market disadvantage.
Monday, 9 January 2012
‘An acceptance that it’s just your lot, I suppose’: reflections on turbulent transitions between work and welfare
an article by e David McCollum published in People, Place & Policy Online Volume 5 Issue 3 (2011)
Summary
Employment policies have conventionally focused on the transition from welfare to work. However, many of those who leave out-of-work benefits for employment return to them again relatively quickly, meaning that some people perpetually cycle between work and welfare for much of their working lives.
This article focuses on the individuals making these precarious labour market transitions and on the narratives that they use when reflecting on them. A broad agency-structure analytical framework is used to demonstrate the role of individual and more ‘involuntary’ structural factors in the production and reproduction of economic marginalisation. These findings have implications for the extent to which ‘bad jobs’ and ‘bad workers’ are viewed as determinants of labour market disadvantage and for how policies to combat work-welfare cycling are formulated and critiqued.
Full text: HTML and PDF (12pp)
Summary
Employment policies have conventionally focused on the transition from welfare to work. However, many of those who leave out-of-work benefits for employment return to them again relatively quickly, meaning that some people perpetually cycle between work and welfare for much of their working lives.
This article focuses on the individuals making these precarious labour market transitions and on the narratives that they use when reflecting on them. A broad agency-structure analytical framework is used to demonstrate the role of individual and more ‘involuntary’ structural factors in the production and reproduction of economic marginalisation. These findings have implications for the extent to which ‘bad jobs’ and ‘bad workers’ are viewed as determinants of labour market disadvantage and for how policies to combat work-welfare cycling are formulated and critiqued.
Full text: HTML and PDF (12pp)
Sunday, 25 September 2011
The curse of inopportune transitions: …
The labour market behaviour of immigrants and natives in the UK
an article by Neli Demireva (University of Oxford) and Christel Kesler (University of Oxford and Barnard College, USA) published in International Journal of Comparative Sociology Volume 52 Number 4 (August 2011)
Abstract
The article focuses on transitions between employment and not working among immigrants, the second generation and British-born Whites. We find evidence of lower stability in employment for New Commonwealth, Middle Eastern and Turkish immigrants. This penalization holds also for the second generation, especially in terms of exiting unemployment. On the other hand, no disadvantage is noted for labour immigrants from countries recently accessed to the EU such as Romanians and Bulgarians; or, if penalization is observed in the transition matrices, it disappears with controls for personal and labour market characteristics as is the case for EU8 and Eastern European immigrants. The continuous penalization of immigrants in Britain is confirmed; however, a dynamic perspective emphasizes that some immigrants, such as those from Eastern Europe, are less penalized than is observed in cross-sectional analyses.
an article by Neli Demireva (University of Oxford) and Christel Kesler (University of Oxford and Barnard College, USA) published in International Journal of Comparative Sociology Volume 52 Number 4 (August 2011)
Abstract
The article focuses on transitions between employment and not working among immigrants, the second generation and British-born Whites. We find evidence of lower stability in employment for New Commonwealth, Middle Eastern and Turkish immigrants. This penalization holds also for the second generation, especially in terms of exiting unemployment. On the other hand, no disadvantage is noted for labour immigrants from countries recently accessed to the EU such as Romanians and Bulgarians; or, if penalization is observed in the transition matrices, it disappears with controls for personal and labour market characteristics as is the case for EU8 and Eastern European immigrants. The continuous penalization of immigrants in Britain is confirmed; however, a dynamic perspective emphasizes that some immigrants, such as those from Eastern Europe, are less penalized than is observed in cross-sectional analyses.
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